« Inventories Coming Down is Bullish | Main | Apple: New iPhone Rumors Heating Up Ahead of Earnings »

April 08, 2009

AT&T Lagging on Strike Worries?

AT&T has been lagging a bit the last few days, especially today. Telecom in general has had a tough time. I think worries over wireless competition amid slowing subscriber growth and tight consumer budgets is probably an issue. For AT&T in particular, there is also the threat of a strike. A contract with over 100,000 workers expired on Saturday night. The bulk of the workers are in the wireline business where long-term secular decline is underway. The company is likely to take a hard line given the secular issues so there is probably some speculation that a strike is coming as no deal has been reached. The strike will probably worry analysts and investors who (1) anticipate an uptick in churn of wireless and wireline subs, and (2) fear loss of momentum of wireless sales. The fact that cyclical issues are already pressuring demand exacerbates the potential problem. I think there is little to worry about from the strike and that AT&T will catch up to the market. Assuming a decent market, I see the shares in the low $30s in the next three to six months. With a dividend yield of over 5%, AT&T remains an attractive investment with offensive and defensive characteristics

Posted by Steve Birenberg at April 8, 2009 02:03 PM in Telephone