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Media Talk Archives
Here is an archive of all the posts on the Media Talk blog. Please feel free to link to anything of interest but only clients and friends have access to the entire post. If you are interested in learning more about Northlake Capital Management or gaining access to the Media Talk blog, please contact Steve Birenberg at steve@northlakecapital.com.
March 02, 2010 - Swapping Discovery Share Classes
On March 1st, all Northlake client positions in Discovery Communications voting shares (DISCA) were swapped to Discovery Communications non-voting shares (DISCK) on a dollar for...March 01, 2010 - Sticking With Small Cap and Value for March
There were no changes to Northlake's models for March. The Market Cap model is sending a small cap signal for the second consecutive month and...February 25, 2010 - Virgin Media: Corner Turned, Upside Ahead
Virgin Media reported its best quarter in several years. Mid to upper single digit revenue and EBITDA growth comfortably exceeded estimates and translated to a...February 20, 2010 - Advertising Recovery Accelerating at CBS
CBS reported solid results with EPS, revenue, and EBITDA closely matching street estimates. The report did not provide the big positive surprise seen by News...February 18, 2010 - DirecTV: Solid Results and Guidance Reduces Worries on US Competition
DirecTV (DTV) reported solid 4Q09 financial results and mixed subscriber metrics. The company also announced a $3.5 billion share repurchases which exceeded the high end...February 18, 2010 - Quarterly Media Earnings Good But Stocks Trade Lower
The following commentary summarizes recent media company earnings reports including Discovery Communications (DISCA), which remains widely held by Northlake clients. Since I wrote these comments,...February 01, 2010 - Back to Small Caps as Market Cap Model Volatility Continues
Northlake’s Market Cap model continues to show unusual volatility, reflecting the volatile economic and financial market environment. For February the model is sending a small...January 29, 2010 - Searching for Profits in Google
Earlier this week, I purchased a position in Google (GOOG) for all Northlake clients who use individual stocks as part of their portfolio strategy. GOOG...January 25, 2010 - Another Good Quarter Validates Apple Bull Case Despite Confusion
Apple reported another good quarter (revenue +32%, EPS +44%) although investor reaction was unusually muted as the company unexpectedly switched its revenue recognition policy for...January 22, 2010 - Virgin Media: Back Long An Old Friend
I purchased a new position in Virgin Media (VMED) in all Northlake client accounts, including my personal accounts. Clients who have been at Northlake for...January 19, 2010 - Sold AT&T Due to Fear of Wireless Price War
All Northlake positions in AT&T have been sold in the last couple of trading days. The stock has been a disappointment. It did not participate...January 05, 2010 - Back to Mid Cap to Start the New Year
Northlake's Market Cap Model started 2010 with a new signal favoring Mid Cap. This reverses the change made at the start of December when the...December 01, 2009 - Market Cap Model Shifts to Large Cap for December
Northlake's Market Cap model shifted to Large Cap from Mid Cap for the month of December. The current signal is just barely in large cap...November 23, 2009 - Liberty Media Entertainment Merger with DirecTV Closes
Last Thursday, shareholders of Liberty Media Entertainment (LMDIA) and DirecTV (DTV) formally approved the merger between the two companies. The merger closed Thursday night. Many...November 20, 2009 - Steve Birenberg to Co-Manage Entermedia Growth Partners Hedge Fund
I am pleased to announce that beginning January 1, 2010, I will be co-managing Entermedia Growth Partners. Entermedia is a 16 year old hedge fund...November 13, 2009 - Less Than Meets the Eye at Disney
Disney reported better than expected fourth quarter 2009 financial results. Benefiting from an extra week, the company reported adjusted EPS of 46 cents, easily beating...November 11, 2009 - Disney to Finish Off Media Earnings Season
Disney wraps up September quarter earnings for media and communications companies when it reports after the close on Thursday. Analyst estimates call for EPs of...November 06, 2009 - CBS Shows Upside But Maintains Guidance
CBS reported modest upside to estimates in 3Q09 with most of the excess coming from the syndication business. However, it was still a strong quarter...November 06, 2009 - Discovery Leading the Advertising Recovery
Discovery Communications (DISCA) reported another good quarter, making it five in a row since the company went public in September 2009. The upside was not...November 05, 2009 - DirecTV Comes Through with Free Cash Flow as Prior Worries Recede
When I first read the DirecTV press release I was worried the stock would trade down. I saw the results as mixed with a few...November 02, 2009 - DirecTV 3Q Earnings Preview
Northlake clients own DirecTV (DTV) through their position in Liberty Media Entertainment (LMDIA). LMDIA owns 54% of DTV. DTV will acquire LMDIA prior to year...November 02, 2009 - November Model Update: Mid Cap and Value Still Favored
There are no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for November. The Market Cap model is sending a Mid Cap signal for the...October 28, 2009 - Will DVDs Bite An Otherwise Good Outlook for Dreamworks Animation?
Analysts and investors are rightly looking ahead to 2010 when deciding how to invest in Dreamworks Animation (DWA). The company has three films coming out...October 24, 2009 - Disappointing CETV Investor Day Delays Still Signifcant Recovery Potential
I attended Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) Investor Day in Prague on October 15th. The stock is presently not widely held by Northlake clients but...October 24, 2009 - Plenty of Upside Left for Apple
I was on my to O'Hare airport last Monday when Apple reported its 4Q09 results. The conference call occurred while I was in the air...October 22, 2009 - Sticking with AT&T After Solid Quarter
Ahead of AT&T's third quarter earnings report I decided that I would either sell or hold Northlake's shares based on what was reported and what...October 02, 2009 - October 2009 Models: Small Cap Run Ends, Mid Cap Favored
After 13 months flashing a Small Cap signal, Northlake's Market Cap model shifted to Mid Cap for October. I had anticipated this move after steady...October 02, 2009 - Iniital Thoughts on Comcast-NBCU Merger
One of my most important reactions to breaking news or rumors is to get my thoughts down on paper. This allows me to organize my...October 01, 2009 - M&A Back in the Forefront of Media Investing
Merger and acquisition rumors have reemerged as drivers of media stocks after a mutli-year absence. The latest rumor was posted by The Wall Street Journal...September 17, 2009 - Renewed Takeover Speculation Adds Another Leg to Media Stock Rally
Media stocks continue to be market leaders in the latest phase of the stock market rally. The market rally is based on improved sentiment and...September 03, 2009 - September Models Still Favor Small Caps and Value
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for September. The signals remain small cap and value. As a result, all client...August 25, 2009 - Sold Half of CBS
On Monday, I sold half of Northlake's positions in CBS in each account that holds the stock. My reasoning is that the stock has risen...August 17, 2009 - Stability Without Recovery Defines Second Quarter Media Earnings
Most media companies report quarterly earnings in a two week span beginning with the last week of the first month of each calendar quarter. Below...August 07, 2009 - Confident CBS Predicts Strong Second Half Recovery
CBS reported 8 cents on revenue of $3.01 billion against consensus of 7 cents and $3.05 billion. EBITDA of $387 million was at the top...August 04, 2009 - Discovery Communication Reports Another Positive Surprise
Discovery Communications reported another positive surprise, making it three straight quarters. Revenue matched expectations but superb performance on costs allowed EBITDA to come at $381...August 03, 2009 - August 2009 Model Signals Favor Small Caps and Value
There were no changes to Northlake's monthly Market Cap and Style models for August. The Market Cap model is still recommending small caps and the...July 31, 2009 - Disney Quarter Shows Stability But No Improvement
Disney's (DIS) third-quarter 2009 report looked a lot like its second-quarter 2009 report. Trends remain weak but are not getting any worse. EPS beat by...July 29, 2009 - Good Quarter at Time Warner Goes Unrewarded
Time Warner reported a good 3Q09, beating expectations on most key metrics. EPS of 45 cents exceeded the consensus estimate of 37 cents. Revenues of...July 28, 2009 - Viacom's Sequential Improvement in Advertising is Bullish
Viacom reported mixed 2Q09 results with adjusted EPS of 49 cents matching expectations on $3.3 billion in revenues, which were $200 million light of expectations....July 23, 2009 - Solid Results From AT&T Should Sustain Improved Investor Sentiment
In response to solid 2Q09 earnings, AT&T shares are breaking out of a multi-month funk where they sharply lagged the market and peer Verizon. The...July 22, 2009 - Apple Scores Again with Big Quarter and Good Guidance
Apple reported another great quarter with Mac and iPhone unit sales exceeding expectations and gross margins coming in well ahead of the most bullish estimate....July 21, 2009 - Apple Quarterly Earnings Preview
My friend and RealMoney.com colleague, Jordan Kahn, wrote the following preview of Apple's June quarter earnings which are due to be reported after the close...July 20, 2009 - Barron's Boosts Media Stocks Ahead of Earnings
Earnings season for media stocks begins in earnest next week but there is still news flow that is impacting the stocks. Media stocks soared on...July 09, 2009 - Upfront Trying to Break Which Would Help Media Stocks
The following commentary first appeared in the "Dow of Steve" blog on SNL Kagan's subscription website on July 1, 2009. There were signs in last...July 07, 2009 - CBS: New Buy For Cyclical Upturn as Balance Sheet Concerns Ease
I purchased CBS for most Northlake clients on July 7th. The stock has pulled back by 33% off its recovery high leaving it at a...July 01, 2009 - July 2009 Model Signals: A Shift to Value
For the first time since February, there has been a change on Northlake's Core and Explore ETF models. The Style model has moved to Value...June 24, 2009 - Over The Top Video Threat Less Than The Hype
The following commentary first appeared in the "Dow of Steve" blog on SNL Kagan's subscription website on June 17, 2009. The most significant secular debate...June 23, 2009 - Strong Hints Jobs is Back Working at Apple
Yesterday morning on Twitter I noted that Steve Jobs was quoted in Apple's press release announcing 1 million sales of the new iPhone 3Gs. I...June 17, 2009 - Apple as Religion
SNL Kagan, which publishes the Dow of Steve blog, recently had an article discussing lower prices initiated by apple in the Mac and iPhone product...June 05, 2009 - Liberty Media Entertainment: New Long Position Provides Cheap Play on DirecTV and Other Goodies
I took a new position in Liberty Media Entertainment Group (LMDIA) today. LMDIA is being acquired by DirecTV (DTV). LMDIA owns 54% of DTV along...June 01, 2009 - June 2009 Model Signals Still Favor Small Cap and Growth
There are no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for June. The signals remain small cap and growth. As a result, client positions...May 28, 2009 - Time Warner Officially Jettisons AOL
I have been strongly in favor of a separation of AOL from Time Warner (TWX) for several years. I am not convinced there is much...May 25, 2009 - Holiday Box Office Fizzles as Tough Comps Take Their Toll
Facing a very tough comparison driven by the $126 million open for Indiana Jones the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull a year ago, the weekend...May 19, 2009 - M&A Speculation Hits Hollywood
Over the past few trading days, shares of the two major independent Hollywood studios have moved up sharply. Dreamworks Animation (DWA) is up four straight...May 17, 2009 - Box Office Up Again But Story is Studios Not Theaters
Last weekend is a good reminder of why box office analysis is not as simple as it seems. The overall weekend in North America was...May 08, 2009 - CBS Misses But Optimistic on Second Half
CBS reported worse than expected 1Q09 results with EPS, revenue, and EBITDA each below estimates. However, Les Moonves spoke about improved advertising trends in the...May 07, 2009 - Sold Time Warner
I sold all client and personal positions in Time Warner (TWX) on Thursday morning. The shares had rallied 39% since re-opening for trading following the...May 07, 2009 - Cablevision: Mixed Fundamentals Offset by Potential Asset Spin-Off
Cablevision (CVC) shares jumped sharply following the release of 1Q09 earnings. The upside is being driven by free cash flow and the announcement that CVC...May 06, 2009 - News Corporation: Dismal Results But Rupert Less Bearish
News Corporation reported dismal 3Q09 earnings as expected. Revenues were light of expectations but EPS were in line after adjusting for several large, one-time items....May 06, 2009 - Trimming the Branches on the Apple Tree
While I still think Apple (AAPL) has upside to $150 plus as the year unfolds, I trimmed positions across most Northlake client accounts this morning....May 06, 2009 - Cablevision Earnings Preview: Stakes Raised By Earlier Cable Reports
First Time Warner Cable (TWC) and then Comcast (CMCSA) set the table for Cable vision (CVC) with stronger than expected earnings reports. The first two...May 05, 2009 - News Corporation Earnings Preview: Is This The Bottom?
News Corporation will report a dismal March quarter. EPS and EBITDA will declines 50% or more. The good news is this should be the worst...May 04, 2009 - Another Positive Surprise at Discovery Communications
Discovery Communications (DISCA/DISCK) reported its third consecutive positive earnings surprise. The shares are responding, up 8% in early trading on Monday. DISCA shares are now...May 03, 2009 - May Model Signals Still Favor Small Cap and Growth
There are no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for May. The signals continue to recommend small caps and growth. As a result,...April 30, 2009 - Discovery Communications in Value Enhancing JV Ahead of 1Q Earnings Report
Ahead of its 1Q09 earnings report on Monday, Discovery Communications announced a joint venture and re-branding of its Discovery Kids Network. A 50/50 joint venture...April 30, 2009 - Comcast Beats Across the Board to My Surprise
Comcast reported better than expected 1Q09 results pretty much across the board. I completely missed this as I had expected this to be the final...April 30, 2009 - Viacom Reports Inline But Stock Already Reflects Bottoming Trends
Viacom reported 1Q09 results largely in line with analyst estimates. EPS of 29 cents beat the 26 cent consensus but revenues of $2.91 billion fell...April 29, 2009 - Time Warner: Good Results and AOL Exit Drive Upside
Time Warner (TWX) reported better than expected 1Q09 results. Headline financial numbers of 35 cents, $6.95 billion in revenue, and $1.56 billion in EBITDA each...April 28, 2009 - Comcast Earnings Preview: Will estimates come down again?
Comcast reports 1Q09 results before the open on Thursday. Analysts expectations are for a mid single digit increase in revenue and EBITDA with strong free...April 28, 2009 - Viacom Earnings Preview: Is Advertising Stabilizing?
Viacom is expected to report 1Q09 EPS of 26 cents on revenue $2.97 billion. Both figures produce negative year –over-year growth as the company struggles...April 27, 2009 - Sold NII Holdings on Swine Flu Fears
I sold all Northlake positions in NII Holdings (NIHD) this morning in response to the threat that swine flu could have on the company's business...April 27, 2009 - Time Warner Earnings Preview: It's All About Advertising Growth
Time Warner (TWX) reports its first quarter since completion of its restructuring on Wednesday morning. The company no longer owns cable systems and is not...April 26, 2009 - Box Office Boom Continues But Look Out Ahead
The box office boom of 2009 continued last weekend with the top 12 films up 30% vs. a year ago. Led by another surprisingly large...April 23, 2009 - NII Holdings: Skies are Clearing
NII Holdings reported better than expected 1Q09 earnings today. I have been torn on this stock for months, particularly since the company pre-announced lower than...April 22, 2009 - Another Blowout for Apple Supports More Upside
Apple reported another blowout quarter with revenues and gross margins far exceeding expectations and driving EPS to $1.33 vs. consensus of $1.09 and whisper numbers...April 22, 2009 - Clean Beat for AT&T -- Shares Headed Higher
AT&T reported better than expected 1Q09 results. The upside was driven by margins in both the wireline and wireless business segments. Cost control and better...April 21, 2009 - Apple Earnings Preview: Should Be Good But It's Always About Guidance
Apple reports its 2Q09 results after the close on Wednesday. As usual with Apple the stock will react to guidance unless the quarterly numbers are...April 21, 2009 - AT&T 1Q09 Earnings Preview
AT&T reports 1Q09 results before the open on Wednesday. Current consensus calls for EPS of 48 cents on revenues of $31.1 billion. EBITDA is expected...April 16, 2009 - Apple Still Has Upside
Apple reports its March quarter next week. The stock sits near its 2009 high, up about 40%. Each time the stock has pulled back buyers...April 14, 2009 - Ad Forecast Cut is Not New News
I have been following advertising forecasts closely for many years. I have long thought that Zenith Optimedia provided some of the best forecasts and had...April 14, 2009 - Playing the Mobile Data Explosion
SNL Kagan has an article out today discussing the potential upgrade to 4G wireless networks. The article quotes a recent forecast from Cisco Systems (CSCO)...April 12, 2009 - Box Office Stays Red Hot
The box office boom continues. The top 12 films were up 61%. Led by Hannah Montana The Movie, a reasonable hold Fast and Furious, and...April 09, 2009 - Trimming Discovery Communications
Discovery Communications (DISCA) has been one Northlake's best performing stocks. The stock was purchased in mid-September prior to the market crash at $16.50. Today, I...April 09, 2009 - Apple: New iPhone Rumors Heating Up Ahead of Earnings
Pretty much everyone is now expecting a June introduction of a new iPhone model. Most people expect an upgrade to the 3G but a few...April 08, 2009 - AT&T Lagging on Strike Worries?
AT&T has been lagging a bit the last few days, especially today. Telecom in general has had a tough time. I think worries over wireless...April 08, 2009 - Inventories Coming Down is Bullish
One of the things necessary to turn the GDP numbers is a change in production schedules of factories. At first, all that will occur is...April 08, 2009 - Monsters vs. Aliens Falling Short
I've written catuious commentary since Monsters vs. Aliens opened to $59 million in North America, in line with analyst estimates. The second weekend saw a...April 07, 2009 - Profits Not Box Office Matter to Movie Studios
The box office boom is clearly a plus for theater owners how collect about 45% of ticket revenues and get more high margin concession sales....April 07, 2009 - Discovery Communications Catches a Downgrade
I'll bet you would be shocked to learn that there is a media stock trading above its mid-September, pre-crash levels. It's true. Discovery Communications (DISCA)...April 07, 2009 - NII Holdings Gets Downgrades
I was hoping for a stronger defense by the analyst community after NIHD fell 18% yesterday following pre-announcement of lower than expected 1Q09 subscriber growth....April 07, 2009 - TWX Takes Another Step Toward Ridding Itself of AOL
The WSJ is reporting that TWX has asked bondholders for consent to amend covenants. The amendments essentially switch collateral on the bonds from AOL to...April 06, 2009 - NII Holdings Guides Subscribers Lower
NIHD is down 19% after announcing its 1Q subscriber figures. The numbers were below expectations and the company lowered its full year subscriber forecasts. Especially...April 05, 2009 - Box Office Accelerates Furiously
The box office boom kicked into top gear this weekend as Fast and Furious opened to $72.5 million, shattering expectations and the prior record for...April 03, 2009 - Movie Star Salary Control Just One Way Studios Are Coping
On Thursday the ">Wall Street Journal ran a major story discussing how the Hollywood studios are trying to cut back on the huge payouts to...April 02, 2009 - Housekeeping: Sold Time Warner Cable
I sold all the shares clients received last week in Time Warner Cable (TWC) as a dividend from Time Warner (TWX). For each share of...April 01, 2009 - April Model Signals Favor Small Cap and Growth
There were no changes this month to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models. The signals remain small cap and growth. As a result, within the...April 01, 2009 - "Dow of Steve" Debuts at SNL Kagan
I am very pleased to announce that SNL Kagan, by far the industry leader in independent reporting and analysis on the media and communications industries...March 29, 2009 - Monsters vs. Aliens Scores in 3-D Adding Bull Fuel to Movie Stocks
Monsters vs. Aliens met expectations with an opening weekend gross of $58.2 million. The box office also benefitted from a surprisingly strong opening for The...March 26, 2009 - Trrying to Explain the Rally
In trying to explain the rally in the face of nothing but sensational negative news, I have tried to stress that all it takes is...March 25, 2009 - Monsters vs. Aliens Sets Up Two Way Trading in DWA
The next film from Dreamworks Animation (DWA) arrives in theaters on Friday. Monsters. vs. Aliens will easily be the #1 film this weekend and will...March 23, 2009 - CETV Sells 31% Stake to Time Warner Dramatically Improving Risk-Reward Trade-Off
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), one of my long-time favorite stocks which I stupidly rode all the way down, soared on Monday following the announcement...March 22, 2009 - Box Office Cooling Won't Last Much Longer
The box office continued its cooling trend as the weekend was down 1.5% for the top 12 films according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. This marks the second...March 19, 2009 - Disney Scraps Hong Kong Park Expansion to Shift Focus to Shanghai?
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Disney (DIS) is putting expansion of its Hong Kong theme park on hold and laying off the employees...March 18, 2009 - Dollar Weakness is Bullish
My friend and fellow money manager, Scott Rothbort, noted on SeekingAlpha.com that euro strength is bullish. I think he is right. The euro is over...March 16, 2009 - The Backdoor Way to Play DirecTV
In February, following release of DirecTV's (DTV) 4Q08 results, I wrote several favorable comments about DTV on RealMoney.com. I followed up by publishing the following...March 15, 2009 - Box Office Winning Streak Ends
For the first time since late December the weekend box office fell on a year-over-year basis. Weekend receipts for the top 12 films were $89.2...March 13, 2009 - Why Would a Senior Google Exec Leave for AOL?
Time Warner (TWX) has hired one of Google's most senior executives to run AOL. Tim Armstrong was a member of Google's Operating Committee and President...March 12, 2009 - We're Still Watching TV The Old-Fashioned Way
I have pointed out repeatedly that media stocks are suffering a two pronged assault from cyclical and secular challenges. Making matters worse is that the...March 12, 2009 - Life at Apple Continues Sans Jobs
Bloomberg is reporting a March 17th event to provide a "sneak peak" at new iPhone software, version 3.0. The company introduced a new, next generation...March 11, 2009 - Technology Risk at NII Holdings
Pali Research is out with a new report on NII Holdings (NIHD). They are reiterating their buy and establishing a $25 price target. The cut...March 10, 2009 - Time Warner is Watching Watchmen
The Weekend box office continued its year long win streak but for the second consecutive weekend there was a disappointment from a highly anticipated film....March 09, 2009 - NII Holdings: Business Holding Up, Stock Going Down
NII Holdings (NIHD) reported 4Q08 results and provided 2009 guidance at the end of February. I thought the 4Q figures were quite good considering the...March 03, 2009 - March 2009 Model Signals and Market Comments
The bear market accelerated in February. I think three things were at work. First, economic statistics on a global basis decelerated rapidly in January and...February 26, 2009 - CETV: Macro Outlook Takes Company and Stock Out of Management Control For Now
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported mixed 4Q08 results excluding impairment charges and currency impacts. Commentary on 2009 was much bleaker than the company had...February 25, 2009 - Discovery Communicaitons Provides Some Good News
I finally got something right. Discovery Communications (DISCA) reported another positive surprise (EBITDA +23%, margins +700 basis points) and provided upbeat 2009 guidance. The stock...February 25, 2009 - Sold Dreamworks as Weak Quarter Raises Long-Term Issues
Despite my hopes that Dreamworks Animation (DWA) had a good set up going into last night's earnings reports, the stock is going to trade down...February 24, 2009 - Dreamworks Animation Earnings Preview
Several of Northlake's long positions report this week beginning tonight with Dreamworks Animation (DWA). DWA has been very weak as the collapse in DVD sales...February 23, 2009 - Monday Media Musings: February 23, 2009
Here's the morning after Oscar edition of Monday Media Musings. The Bull Market Can Found at Your Local Theater The good news at the box...February 20, 2009 - Time Warner Break Up Approved
Back in late November when Time Warner was trading just over $9, I wrote a column for Real Money explaining Why You Should Own the...February 18, 2009 - Monday Media Musings on a Wednesday: February 18, 2009
Time for some Monday Media Musings on a Wednesday morning. Box Office Remains Strong with Time Warner running 1 and 2 The weekend box office...February 09, 2009 - Monday Media Musings: February 9, 2009
Monday Media Musings is back despite battling a major technology crash at Northlake. Servers are back and all the backup systems functioned well. Box Office...February 08, 2009 - Both Dreamworks in the News
Dreamworks is in the news. First, Dreamworks SKG, the privately held, live action movie studio that is home to Steven Spielberg, is changing plans and...February 04, 2009 - Time Warner: Relatively Good Earnings But Murky Outlook
Given the circumstances, Time Warner (TWX) reported decent 4Q08 results and provided better than expected guidance. However, to be perfectly honest, there are so many...February 03, 2009 - Time Warner 4Q08 Earnings Preview
Time Warner effectively preannounced 4Q08 results when it updated its guidance for 2008 last month. The guidance brought 2008 EBITDA to a gain of just...February 02, 2009 - February 2009 Model Signals: Back to Growth
Northlake's Style model shifted from value to growth for February. Hopefully, it was only one month late. Last month was awful for value on a...February 02, 2009 - P&G Still Spending
My daily email from All Things Digital had an interesting tidbit on the advertising market. Procter and Gamble is the largest US advertiser and CEO...February 02, 2009 - Monday Media Musings: February 2, 2009
The Super Bowl, the biggest media and advertising event of the year is over. I don’t have any Monday Media Musings about the big game...February 01, 2009 - CETV Update
CETV shares are approaching their November low including a 2-day drop of over 20% last Thursday and Friday. I received a bunch of emails asking...January 29, 2009 - The Steelers Are Bullish
A good friend and client is a huge Steelers fan. Being a Buffalo Bills fan I don’t know how I can stand the guy as...January 29, 2009 - Apple Acting Better
Apple is now up about 10% this year and almost 20% from just before it reported its December quarter. I think there a few things...January 28, 2009 - Good Quarter But Confusing and Lower Gudiance Muddies the Water
Immediately below are two comments on AT&T's 4Q08 earnings report. The first one is my immediate reaction writtne prior to the conference call. The second...January 27, 2009 - Negative Reaction to Verizon 4Q Raises Stakes for AT&T
AT&T is projected to report EPS of 65 cents on revenues of $31.35 billion. A negative reaction to Verizon's report and some negatives that cropped...January 26, 2009 - Sundance 2009
I went to the Sundance Film Festival for the second year whereI saw eight films over two days. If I had a longer stay I...January 21, 2009 - Apple Comes Through
I have to admit a sense of great relief following Apple's December quarter earnings. The numbers were great and guidance for the March quarter was...January 20, 2009 - Slow Sales at Sundance So Far
While you are reading this I'll be heading to O'Hare to hop a plane to Salt Lake City on my way to Park City and...January 20, 2009 - Dreamworks Animation is Relative Safety in Media
There seems to be no place in media to hide as estimates continue to fall and no signs of recovery in advertising or other key...January 14, 2009 - New FCC Chairman Presents Risk
In big news for media and telecom, major media outlets are reporting that President-elect Obama will nominate Julius Genachowski to head the Federal Communications Commission...January 02, 2009 - January 2009 Model Signals
Northlake's monthly Market Cap and Style models favor Small Caps and Value for January. As a result, client and personal accounts have a position in...December 31, 2008 - Telecom: 2008 Year In Review
Over they years I have expanded my universe from media to telecom as the two industries have converged. Technology advancement has triggered the convergence as...December 30, 2008 - Media: 2008 Year In Review
It's been a rough year for investors. My own performance has been mediocre with most Northlake clients plus or minus a couple of percent relative...December 29, 2008 - Monday Media Musings: December 29, 2008
This is the first of new series of column I will write. Each Monday, I will review media news and notes from the prior week...December 18, 2008 - Apple Exits MacWorld
I believe the reporting of Apple's withdrawal form MacWorld after 2009 and Jobs lack of appearance this year was misreported. There is little doubt that...December 15, 2008 - Goldman Downgrades AT&T to Neutral
AT&T was downgraded to neutral form buy by Goldman Sachs today offsetting the good news from Friday when the company increased its annual dividend by...December 15, 2008 - UBS Media Conference Part Two
As noted in Part One, the main message coming out of the conference that was that advertising continues to deteriorate and visibility into 2009 is...December 15, 2008 - UBS Media Conference Part One
I spent Wednesday in NY while sitting at my desk in Chicago. In a sing of the times, I skipped the UBS Media Conference in...December 11, 2008 - The Dark Knight Can Sell DVDs
The Dark Knight debuted strongly on DVD selling 3 million units on its first day. This should be good news for Time Warner although that...December 10, 2008 - No Recession for Super Bowl Ads
Some fun news from news the world of media: According to the most recent issue of Sports Illustrated, demand for Super Bowl advertising is not...December 09, 2008 - Leno to Primetime: Desperate NBC or Desperation for Network TV?
Big news in the world of media comes from NBC where Jay Leno will be on NBC 46 to 48 weeks per year every weeknight...December 08, 2008 - CETV Presents at UBS Media Conference
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) presented on Monday morning at the 36th Annual UBS Media and Telecom Conference in New York City. The presentation appears...December 06, 2008 - New Purchase: Why You Should Own AT&T
On Friday, December 5th, I purchased AT&T for Northlake clients and in my personal accounts. The following commentary appeared on RealMoney.com on December 3rd when...December 01, 2008 - December 2008 Model Updates
There are no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for December. I continue to own Small Cap (IWM/IJR) and Value (IWD/IVE) for personal...November 28, 2008 - Why You Should Own Time Warner
Time Warner (TWX) is one of the world's leading entertainment companies. The company owns AOL, 84% of Time Warner Cable (TWC) , Warner Brothers, HBO...November 26, 2008 - Why You Should Own Discovery Communications
Discovery Communications (DISCA) is one of the world's largest providers of cable networks, with projected 2008 revenue in excess of $3.4 billion. The company operates...November 21, 2008 - Latest Market Comments
The market has just been brutal. I have incorrectly thought the whole way down that stocks were reflecting a worse economic reality than was likely...November 21, 2008 - Why You Should Own Dreamworks Animation
This will be the first in a new series of columns I will write titled "Why You Should Own..." The first stock is Dreamworks Animation...November 20, 2008 - Trying to Explain Why I still Like CETV
It is embarrassing to write about Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) given that I have owned it for Northlake clients and bought more and spoke...November 20, 2008 - "They Just Haven't Seen It Yet"
Yesterday, late in the day upon returning from a tech conference my RealMoney.com colleague Bob Faulkner wrote, " Now the bear in me will say...November 14, 2008 - Update on DWA Trade
After sharp sell-off earlier this week, Dreamworks Animation shares reversed hard yesterday and are up again today even as the market trades to its daily...November 10, 2008 - Dreaming of Gains. Again.
The weak action yesterday in Dreamworks Animation (DWA) following the better than expected opening of Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa led me to buy DWA...November 09, 2008 - Box Office Surging
The expected surge in the fourth quarter box office is back on track after an interruption for Halloween falling on a Friday night. Madagascar 2...November 05, 2008 - NIHD: Good Quarter, Good Business, Bad Stock.
NII Holdings reported about ten days ago while I was on a plane to NY to visit CETV. The report occurred right as the market...November 05, 2008 - Good Quarter Supports Time Warner Shares
Time Warner reported solid 3Q08 results given the economic environment. The stock is reacting positively against a weak market to start the day. The good...November 03, 2008 - November 2008 Model Signals
There are no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for November. The signals continue to be small cap and value. As a result...October 31, 2008 - L'Oreal Plans to Increase Ad Spend
This excerpt from the Wall Street Journal is interesting as it pertains to CETV: “But it's not just tough conditions that explain the slack sales...October 30, 2008 - CETV After The Analyst Meeting and 3Q Earnings
Over the past eight days, CETV held its annual analyst meeting and reported its 3Q08 results. These events seem to have halted the punishing decline...October 28, 2008 - Latest Market Comment
The market staged a big rally on Tuesday that looked quite similar to the one-day wonder on October 13th. Both rallies started from almost the...October 22, 2008 - CETV Analyst Meeting Convenes Amid Stock's Carnage
I am heading to NY Thursday morning to attend CETV's annual analyst meeting which convenes at noon. CETV has long been my favorite stock (since...October 22, 2008 - More Comments on Apple's Earnings
As I leave the office after the Apple call wraps up on Tuesday night, the stock is trading at $102, up a little over $10...October 21, 2008 - Big News on Apple Call: Jobs Makes Rare Appearance
He's alive. He sounds vibrant. Very upbeat on iPhone and notebooks. Discussing economy which he says is impossible to predict but company positioning provides some...October 21, 2008 - Bar Lower for Apple's Quarterly Earnings
Apple reports its September quarter earnings tonight after the market closes. However, the key to the stock price will be the December quarter guidance. Given...October 12, 2008 - Special Market Comment: October 12, 2008
Several times last week I started typing a market comment but each time events were moving so fast that my thoughts felt dated before I...October 01, 2008 - October 2008 Model Signals
For the first time since June 2007, Northlake's Style model is flashing a value signal. The new signal breaks a 15 month run of growth...September 30, 2008 - Down 777, Up 485: Another Special Market Comment
Nice rally today. It didn’t get much commentary in the financial press but all day I was telling contacts that the infrastructure of Wall Street...September 22, 2008 - New Buy: Discovery Communications
After many months of monitoring and researching, I finally got long Discovery Communications in Northlake client accounts on Friday. The shares are temporarily trading under...September 19, 2008 - Another Market Update and Schwab's Safety
The activity in the financial markets and on the regulatory front is absolutely amazing. I've been managing money since 1982 when the Dow was well...September 17, 2008 - Special Market Comment
I firmly believe that the stock market is way oversold. Current levels for the major indices and most stocks will be significantly higher within the...September 14, 2008 - Weekend Box Office Finally Up - Start of A Trend?
I spent all weekend hitting refresh on my browser monitoring the news on Lehman, AIG, and Merrill Lynch. Apparently a bunch of Americans decided to...September 12, 2008 - Important Fall TV Season For Networks Set To Launch
With the conventions and the Olympics over, the next big event in the TV world is the launch of the fall TV season. Things have...September 10, 2008 - Googles Expands TV Biz with NBC
Given all the market volatility and really important macro issues, sometimes I feel bit odd writing about mundane fundamental factors for media stocks but maybe...September 08, 2008 - Fannie and Freddie Bailout
I think the biggest benefit of the Treasury takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is that it will unclog the market for mortgage backed...September 04, 2008 - American Apparel Story Gaining Credence
The recovery in American Apparel continues as the stock crossed $10 yesterday for the first time since the beginning of April. The stock bottomed out...September 04, 2008 - Cable Nets Best Positioned Media
The world of TV transitioned from the Olympics to the political conventions over the past week. The ratings of each event provide some insight to...September 03, 2008 - September 2008 Models: Shifting to Small Caps
For the first time since August 2005, Northlake's monthly Market Cap model is flashing a small cap signal. As a result, I sold all client...September 02, 2008 - Weak Finish Overshadows Strong Summer Box Office
It looks like a weak finish to the summer box office will leave Summer 2008 just short of Summer 2007's all-time record. Labor Day weekend...September 02, 2008 - Lucky Timing on Final Rogers Sale
Looks like I got a bit lucky with the timing of last week's sale of Northlake's remaining position in Rogers Communication (RCI). On Friday, it...August 28, 2008 - Sale of Rogers Completed
It me a full month to complete the sale of Rogers Communications across all Northlake client accounts. Here is a link to my post following...August 26, 2008 - NBC's Olympic Sized Ratings
By now everyone knows that NBC's Olympic coverage produced great ratings, the best since TV truly became multichannel as opposed to just a three or...August 21, 2008 - CETV Trades Down Then Gets An Upgrade
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares sold off heavily last Tuesday, dropping over 10% mid-day and closing down about 7% to set a new 52...August 19, 2008 - Summer Box Office Update: Better Than Expected But...
It's been awhile since I provided an update on the domestic summer box office. Relative to my initial expectations it continues to shape up well....August 15, 2008 - Normalcy Accompanies Growth and American Apparel Bounces Back
One of Northlake's biggest portfolio headaches is a lot better today. Pain relief came in the form of very solid quarter from American Apparel (APP)....August 13, 2008 - The Credit Market Problem
Today's New York Times had a good article explaining why the lending availability is drying up in the US. This is a very important point...August 06, 2008 - New Purchase: Time Warner
Following completion of Time Warner's 2Q08 conference call I purchased the stock widely across the Northlake client base and in my personal accounts. The purchase...August 06, 2008 - The Dream Is Over
I sold all client and personal positions in Dreamworks Animation (DWA) on Tuesday after it had rebounded from overzealous selling following its own 2Q08 report....August 02, 2008 - Why Is CETV Struggling When I Think It Will Double
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) remains my favorite media stock for all time horizons. Despite my enthusiasm the shares have performed poorly this year. Although,...August 02, 2008 - August 2008 Model Signals
Once again there were no changes to Northlake's monthly Market Cap and Style models. The Market Cap signal remains mid cap and the Style signal...July 31, 2008 - Good Results, Bad Trading at CETV
I am working a longer comment on CETV, probably to be posted on Monday, but given the crazy trading following yesterday's earnings report and conference...July 30, 2008 - Dreamworks Thesis Falls Apart
My thesis on Dreamworks Animation fell apart when the company reported 2Q results after the close on Tuesday. While I understand the 10% decline in...July 30, 2008 - Headwinds Increase For Rogers
I began to sell Northlake's position in Rogers Communications last week ahead of its earnings report. I thought the report would be OK but given...July 23, 2008 - NII Comes Through and the Sentiment Turns
What a difference a day makes! After Tuesday brought nothing but bad news for wireless investors, NII Holdings (NIHD) reminded us that there can still...July 22, 2008 - Apple Guidance Is The Problem
Listed below is my live commentary which was posted on RealMoney.com from last night on Apple from before and during the conference call. Without reviewing...July 21, 2008 - Batman Saves Gotham and Hollywood
It's been kind of hard to miss the news on the record breaking opening of The Dark Knight but I'll try to put my usual...July 21, 2008 - Apple Reports Tonight
I expect less positive surprise than usual for Apple when they report June quarter earnings tonight. But barring a major blowout or an unexpected miss,...July 18, 2008 - Time Warner Finally Discarding AOL?
Time Warner shares have enjoyed an above average 9% rebound over the past two days since reports surfaced that the company appears to be more...July 16, 2008 - Rupert Selling. Is CETV Buying?
Central European Media Enterprises shares continue to sink as investors fret about economic conditions in its markets, Romania and Ukraine in particular. Volume has picked...July 15, 2008 - Box Office From The Studio Perspective
Last weekend, the #1 film came from NBC Universal (I wrote up NBCU and its impact on parent General Electric on Monday). Hellboy 2: The...July 10, 2008 - More Ad Forecasts Downgraded
Media stocks kept tumbling this week dropping to new recent lows yesterday in many cases after underperforming Tuesday's rally. Lehman's across the board downgrade of...July 09, 2008 - Catching Up With Comcast
Comcast COO Stephen Burke spoke recently at an industry conference and had some interesting insights. I would have missed it if not for my subscription...July 08, 2008 - Changing Demographics and Wall Street
AdAge.com posted an article analyzing census data from the perspective of marketers. The data was interesting although I guess not all that surprising once it...July 07, 2008 - Media On A Holiday Weekend
The media biz never rests. Even on a holiday weekend. NBC Universal is buying The Weather Channel for $3.5 billion from privately held Landmark Communications....July 02, 2008 - July 2008 Model Signals
There were no changes again this month to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models. The signals continue to flash mid cap and growth. As a...July 01, 2008 - Ad Forecast Good News for CETV
Yesterday, I noted that Zenith Optimedia raised its global ad forecast for 2008 due to strength in developing markets. Central and Eastern Europe was one...July 01, 2008 - CETV Closes Ukraine
Yesterday, I noted that Zenith Optimedia raised its global ad forecast for 2008 due to strength in developing markets. Central and Eastern Europe was one...June 30, 2008 - US Ads Down, Emerging Markets Up
I want to make sure everyone saw that Zenith Optimedia reduced its forecast for 2008 US advertising growth. Zenith presents its year ahead forecast each...June 30, 2008 - Wall-E Drives Cleans Up The Box Office
A whirlwind weekend had me all over the place so just a brief comment on another great weekend for the box office this morning. But...June 26, 2008 - Dreamworks Estimates Begin To Rise
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) shares popped yesterday afternoon. I presume it was due to a report from Jessica Reif of Merrill Lynch which I received after...June 24, 2008 - Finally Some Good News at American Apparel
APP reached agreement on a new amended credit agreement with its lead bank. Back in early June the stock took a dive on the day...June 24, 2008 - Box Office Remains Healthier Than Expected But...
The box office rose for the fourth consecutive weekend with the top 12 films up 9.7% according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. Every weekend in June has been...June 19, 2008 - Media Stocks Still Struggling
Media stocks continue to act poorly. When I sold Northlake's positions in Disney and News Corporation on the last trading day in May I was...June 16, 2008 - Box Office Strength Continues
The weekend box office was strong again, up 25% vs. a year ago. Another good weekend brings the summer, which begins the first weekend in...June 12, 2008 - No Worries As Dreamworks Catches A Downgrade
An analyst I know well, Michael Morris of UBS, downgraded Dreamworks Animation (DWA) this morning driving the shares down more than 7%. I added a...June 10, 2008 - Buying Dreamworks Animation
I purchased Dreamworks Animation (DWA) across client and personal accounts near the open of trading on Monday. The purchase is intended as a "trading buy"...June 09, 2008 - Sluggish Blu-Ray Sales Another Headwind
So far my sales of Disney has held up pretty well, down just a bit, while News Corp has fallen about 5%. Disney might be...June 06, 2008 - Kung Fu Panda and the Upfront
A few brief items in the media world for this morning: Kung Fu Panda opens today. The film has received good reviews and there has...June 03, 2008 - June 2008 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap or Style Model for June. The Market Cap model continues to flash a Mid Cap signal while...June 01, 2008 - Selling Disney and News Corporation
On Friday, I sold all Northlake client positions in Disney and News Corporation. This is a big deal fro me as media stocks are my...June 01, 2008 - Box Office Has A Sexy Rebound
A better than expected opening for Sex and the City, a decent second weekend for Indiana Jones, and still great legs from Iron Man powered...May 16, 2008 - Encouraging Action in American Apparel
I am quite encouraged by the action in American Apparel (APP). After getting whacked again on Wednesday off a confusing earnings report and conference call,...May 16, 2008 - Thoughts On The Market's Rally
This rally has been really impressive. The S&P 500 is off less than 3% this year as of Thursday's close, hardly a blip considering all...May 16, 2008 - TV Upfront Season Poses Long-Term Risks
The broadcast TV networks made their upfront presentations this week. As I've written before, this year's upfront is going to be problematical for the broadcast...May 14, 2008 - American Apparel: Controversy Continues Amid Stellar Growth
Controversial and rapidly growing retailer American Apparel reported 1Q08 results last night after the close. While there are many extremely positive numbers in the results,...May 12, 2008 - DirecTV Still Rolling And I Missed It
DirecTV reported another strong quarter. Overcoming potential headwinds from the economy, the housing recession, and the loss of AT&T marketing in former BellSouth territories, DTV...May 12, 2008 - Cablevison: Cable Good But Strategy A Mess
Cablevision reported better than expected results driven by its core Cable operations and Madison Square Garden. Revenues grew 11% to $1.84 billion ahead of consensus...May 08, 2008 - News Corp Operating Income Up 16%
News Corporation reported a confusing set of earnings figure. On the call, management said that adjusted EPS were 30 cents vs. the reported figure o...May 07, 2008 - Another Great Quarter For Disney
Disney easily beat estimates with EPS of 58 cents coming in well ahead of the 51 cents consensus estimate. Here are the comments I posted...May 06, 2008 - Time Warner: So Bad It Might Be Getting Good
Time Warner (TWX) reported another mediocre quarter even after adjusting for some items that cause the reported numbers to understate the results. Revenue grew just...May 06, 2008 - Comcast Has Stabilized
Comcast reported good 1Q08 results. EPS matched estimates while revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow exceeded estimates. Most subscriber metrics also beat estimates. Margins fell...May 06, 2008 - Dreamworks: Good Results Ahead of Kung Fu Panda
Dreamworks Animation reported better than expected 1Q08 earnings with EPS of 28 cents and revenues of $156.6 million ahead of consensus of 24 cents and...May 01, 2008 - May 2008 Model Signals
Fresh signals from Northlake's Market Cap and Style models are in. The Market Cap signal swung back to Mid Cap for May, while the Style...April 30, 2008 - Great Quarter and Guidance for CETV
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported outstanding 1Q08 results and simultaneously issued 2008 guidance well above most analyst estimates. The shares responded very favorably, rising...April 30, 2008 - Great News From CETV: Pre-Call Thoughts
My long-time and still favorite media stock, Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), reported much better than expected 1Q08 results this morning. Even better 2008 guidance...April 29, 2008 - Excellent Quarter For Rogers
On Tuesday, Rogers Communications reported excellent 1Q08 results further allaying concerns that caused the shares to pullback from the low $50s before bottoming in the...April 29, 2008 - CBS: Another Unimpressive Quarter
CBS shares popped nicely upward following its 1Q08 earnings report. Results exceeded analyst estimates and were accompanied by an 8% dividend boost. Despite the better...April 28, 2008 - Regal Catches A Downgrade Off Average Quarter
As I mentioned yesterday, former Northlake long Regal Entertainment shares caught a downgrade after reporting an inline quarter late last week. The stock moved up...April 28, 2008 - Scripps Gets Media Earnings Off On The Right Foot
Earnings season for media companies began in earnest last week and really picks up this week. Among major companies, CBS, Time Warner, Viacom, and Comcast...April 24, 2008 - NII Holdings: Another Solid Quarter Supports More Stock Recovery
NII Holdings (NIHD) 1Q08 results were at the high end of expectations pretty much across the board. Given many worries that had cut the stock...April 24, 2008 - Apple Earnings Set The Stage For More Share Price Upside
Apple reported excellent 2Q08 results with revenues and EPS exceeding estimates. Guidance is good by Apple standards with revenues above street estimates and EPS just...April 24, 2008 - Apple: After Earnings, Before The Call
Here is the series of posts I made on RealMoney.com yesterday after crunching Apple's numbers but before the conference call Q&A started: 4:49 PM EST:...April 23, 2008 - Keeping An Eye On Gannett
It is has been a long fall from grace for Gannett. Still regarded as one of the best managed media companies and clearly regarded as...April 22, 2008 - Apple Earnings Preview
Apple reports 2Q08 earnings after the close on Wednesday, April 23rd. I'll be covering the conference call for RealMoney.com. Here is the preview I wrote...April 22, 2008 - AT&T: Steady As She Goes
AT&T reported very solid 1Q08 results. Almost every key metric matched analyst estimates with the exception of wireline line loss which continues to accelerate. Guidance...April 22, 2008 - Disney Adds A Shingle
Disney announced a new production studio, Disneynature. The studio will produce major motion picture documentaries "about the world in which we live." The first film,...April 22, 2008 - Implications of A New HBO-Like Pay TV Network
Viacom, Lionsgate, and MGM announced that they will no longer sell their movies to Showtime (owned by CBS) and instead will launch a new, fourth...April 21, 2008 - Box Office Turns Up. Finally.
After falling year-over-year, often substantially for eight of the past nine weeks, the weekend box office offered a respite. Led by better than expected openings...April 18, 2008 - Thinking About Mobile TV
At the recent National Association of Broadcasters conference, one of the more popular topics was mobile TV. Mobile TV is the ability for consumers to...April 17, 2008 - CE "TV" Does Radio
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), recommended by Jim Cramer last Friday on Mad Money announced that it is acquiring two radio stations in Romania. Until...April 17, 2008 - Terrible Quarter For NY Times
New York Times reported terrible 1Q08 results. Adjusted EPS of 4 cents missed the consensus of 14 cents. Revenues of $748 million were a little...April 16, 2008 - Catching Up With Cable Stocks
Cable stocks have acted pretty well this year. Comcast is up a bit and Time Warner Cable is down slightly. Both have easily outperformed the...April 15, 2008 - News Corp Catches A Downgrade
News Corporation shares traded down 4.6% on Monday in response to a downgrade from Bernstein Research analyst Michael Nathanson. Nathanson lowered his rating from outperform...April 14, 2008 - Wall Street Journal Trashes American Apparel
The Wall Street Journal wrote a damning and extremely damaging article about one of Northlake's long positions. The story on American Apparel (APP) appeared on...April 10, 2008 - Checking In On Disney
I remain long Disney across Northlake client accounts including my own accounts. Down just 3%, the shares have acted fairly well this year compared to...April 08, 2008 - AOL Still Dragging Down Time Warner
Time Warner (TWX) shares are down 10.8% so far this year, lagging most other large cap media stocks. News Corp (NWS) is down 6.1%, Disney...April 07, 2008 - MySpace Miss Pressures News Corp
Controversy about monetization of revenue and profits at MySpace has held back shares of News Corp so far this year despite outstanding December quarter earnings,...April 06, 2008 - Thinking About Apple
Apple has staged a strong recovery, rising 33% from its 2008 intraday low in late February. The beta effect during the recent rally certainly has...April 04, 2008 - The Big Picture on Movie Studios
With all the writing I do on the movie business, sometimes I fear that I miss the big picture. Weekly box office or holiday DVD...April 03, 2008 - What Do Inflating Travel Costs Mean?
Merrill Lynch has put out the latest edition of its quarterly report on pricing trends in travel industries. I summarized this report last quarter because...April 02, 2008 - April 2008 Model Signals
Northlake's Market Cap model shifted from Mid Cap to Large Cap for April. As a result, I sold all client positions in the S&P 400...March 31, 2008 - Newspapers Final 2007 Data As Ugly As Expected
Last Friday, the Newspaper Association of America released its 4Q07 and full year 2007 advertising expenditure data. Not surprisingly, the NAA titled its press release,...March 20, 2008 - Previewing The TV Upfront
The upfront TV advertising market will kick off in May as usual despite dire protestations during the writer's strike that it would be a casualty...March 19, 2008 - Big Media Fundamentals Holding Up For Now
Catching up some email, I found a couple of interesting pieces on the major media companies from Merrill Lynch analyst and my friend, Jessica Reif...March 18, 2008 - Good News From American Apparel But Stock Remains Under Pressure
I was quite pleased with the 4Q07 results, 2008 guidance, and conference call from American Apparel (APP), which reported after the close last night. The...March 12, 2008 - CETV Presents At Bear Stearns Conference
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have steadied since the sharp fall last week following announcement and pricing of their convertible deal. The timing on...March 12, 2008 - Watching Movie Windows
For 2008, I have treated myself to a subscription to SNL Kagan. Kagan is a long-time research firm focusing on media with a great reputation....March 11, 2008 - Weekend Box Office and Weather Channel Updates
The weekend box office fell by 33% against what is probably the toughest comparison it will face until May. The box office has now declined...March 10, 2008 - Virgin Media Back In Private Equity Game?
The UK newspaper The Observer is reporting that it has seen a new memo outlining possible private equity approaches to Virgin Media. VMED has been...March 10, 2008 - Studios and Theatres Finalize Plans for Digital Upgrade
Reuters is reporting that theatre chains representing 40% of North American screens and the major movie studios have finally agreed to a financing plan to...March 08, 2008 - Final Wrap-Up of 2007 Box Office
The Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) released its package of theatrical market statistics for 2007 last week. Most of the data I have already...March 07, 2008 - Newspapers and Radio Ad Markets Remain Troubled
Within traditional media, the newspaper and radio industries have been in their own recession for some time. TV is better off for now. Both newspapers...March 06, 2008 - TV Ad Market Holding Up(front)
The Wall Street Journal reported that TV networks, advertisers, and ad buyers are all saying the upfront ad market will be strong this year. The...March 04, 2008 - CETV Issuing Convertible Bonds
CETV announced a $425 million convertible offering after the close yesterday with a $50 million green shoe. Proceeds will be used to acquire another 30%...March 03, 2008 - March 2008 Model Signals
There were no changes for March to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models that I use for ETF allocation. The signals remain mid cap and...March 03, 2008 - Viacom: Turn On Track But Lacked Upside in 4Q07
Viacom reported solid results that were at the high end of expectations but I would not call it an upside surprise. Guidance for 2008 was...February 29, 2008 - Good Quarter, Good Outlook For Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported excellent 4Q07 results easily beating estimates on revenues, EBITDA, and EPS. Revenues and EBITDA grew 40% and 33%, respectively,...February 29, 2008 - Cablevision Dealling Well With Competition For Now
Cablevision reported better than expected results driven by its core Cable operations and Madison Square Garden. Revenues grew 11% to $1.84 billion ahead of consensus...February 28, 2008 - NII Holdings: Finally In The Clear?
NII Holdings (NIHD) reported better than expected 4Q07 financial results yesterday but the shares sold off sharply anyhow. I can see three potential issues. First,...February 27, 2008 - Selling Regal Entertainment
I posted the following on Real Money before the open on February 27th explaining my decision to sell client holdings of Regal Entertainment. By way...February 25, 2008 - Reviewing Rogers Communications
I feel I have done a good job and a bad job with Northlake's investment in Rogers Communications (RCI). On the one hand, I initially...February 14, 2008 - Stability At Comcast
Comcast provided the stability and achievable guidance that is required to get a relief rally and improve sentiment toward the shares. The financial and subscriber...February 13, 2008 - News Corp Looking At Yahoo?
News Corporation has sat out this week's rally, falling about 2%. I think the problem is fear over a bid for Yahoo. These fears persist...February 11, 2008 - In Line Quarter and Positive Guidance Clears The Way for Regal
Prior to its 4Q07 earnings report last Thursday, shares of Regal Entertainment had already recovered from the sharp sell-off driven by poor box office trends...February 07, 2008 - Dreamworks: Good Quarter But No Catalyst For Awhile
Dreamworks Animation reported better than expected 4Q07 results. EPS of 98 cents beat the 75 cent consensus even after backing out a tax benefit. Revenues...February 06, 2008 - Disney Proving Skeptics Wrong
Disney reported an exceptional quarter. EPS of 63 cents and revenues of $10.45 billion crushed estimates of 52 cents and $10.04 billion. Revenue growth was...February 06, 2008 - CETV Gets The Rest of Ukraine
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), announced very good news yesterday. CETV will purchase the minority interests in its lead station in Ukraine, Studio 1+1. CETV...February 06, 2008 - News But Nothing Exciting at Time Warner
I find little to get excited about regarding Time Warner's quarterly results, guidance, or commentary. The results were quite close to expectations pretty much across...February 05, 2008 - Good News Corp
News Corporation reported excellent third quarter beating consensus estimates on EPS, revenue, and operating income. Strength was virtually across the board with every segment beating...February 04, 2008 - Disney Earnings Preview: Slower Growth But Looking For A Positive Surprise
Disney is expected to report its weakest growth quarter in several years but I do think investors should interpret it as the end of Disney's...February 04, 2008 - News Corp Earnings Preview: Expect Good News
I anticipate a strong quarter from News Corporation after the close on Monday and a positive reaction from the market. The stock jumped 3% on...February 03, 2008 - February 2008 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for February. The Market Cap model continues to flash a mid cap signal while...February 01, 2008 - News Corporation December Quarter Preview
I anticipate a strong quarter from News Corporation after the close on Monday and a positive reaction from the market. The stock jumped 3% on...January 29, 2008 - Verizon OK But Growth Slowing Slightly
Verizon (VZ) reported a pretty solid quarter and made constructive -- if not detailed -- comments about 2008. The market is focusing on some slight...January 29, 2008 - Missing iPhones Found at Sundance
I've been reading up on the phenomenon of the missing iPhones and the only thing I can conclude is they might all have been at...January 28, 2008 - Sundance Wrap Before Reality Returns
If you love movies and have never been to Sundance I highly recommend it. This was my first visit and I found an incredibly well...January 25, 2008 - Slow Sales At Sundance
I got to Sundance yesterday and caught my first movie. I am visiting a good friend in Salt Lake City so I won't be spending...January 24, 2008 - More Thoughts on Apple
In my Apple (AAPL) earnings summary on Tuesday, I said there were enough issues to prevent the stock from staging a quick rebound. Those issues...January 24, 2008 - Mortgage Refinancings a Bullish Development
I spent yesterday afternoon and evening traveling from Chicago to Salt Lake City on my way to the Sundance Film Festival in Park City. In...January 23, 2008 - Apple: Not Good Enough For This Stock
I am not going to recap all the numbers from Apple as you can read that elsewhere. The December quarter was very good but not...January 22, 2008 - Best Case For Apple
I’ll be covering Apple’s earnings call after the close. Here is my preview. I decided to look at aggressive assumptions to see where a best...January 22, 2008 - Apple 1Q08 Preview
Another Apple earnings report comes after the close today, so time for lots more overanalysis and outsized volatility in the usually volatile shares. Estimates have...January 22, 2008 - Special Market Comment
Overseas markets continued to fall sharply last night in Asia and today in Europe. Two day losses in many markets while the US was closed...January 08, 2008 - Disappointing Guidance From Rogers
Before the open on Monday, Rogers Communications (RCI) announced 4Q07 subscriber growth below expectations, doubled its dividend, initiated its first ever share repurchase, and reported...January 08, 2008 - NII Holdings Gets Back On Track
Yesterday, NII Holdings (NIHD) announced better than expected 4Q07 subscriber growth, completion of a large buyback, initiation of another buyback, and an impressive new CEO....January 02, 2008 - January 2008 Model Signals
Northlake's Market Cap model (courtesy of Ned Davis Research) shifted from a large cap signal to a mid cap signal for January. There was no...December 28, 2007 - Why I Bought News Corporation
Back in July, I wrote a review of News Corporation for RealMoney.com outlining the bull case. The analysis remains relevant today so in light of...December 28, 2007 - DVD Sales Moderately Weak But No Disaster
I still got my eye on holiday DVD sales. Data is now available at the-numbers.com through December 16th. This includes the launch of the latest...December 27, 2007 - Selling Comcast. Buying News Corporation.
Partially driven by tax considerations, I sold Northlake's entire position in Comcast yesterday. I used the proceeds to purchase a full position in News Corporation....December 26, 2007 - TV Ad Market Strong. For Now.
On Monday, the New York Post reported that scatter market TV advertising on the big four broadcast networks is running up 18%. Scatter market represents...December 24, 2007 - Box Office Recovery Continues
The box office continued its late year recovery with the three day weekend for the top 12 films rising 40% from a year ago. This...December 19, 2007 - Impact of Presidential Election
There is a lot more on investor's minds these days than the 2008 Presidential election. However, the Iowa caucuses are just 16 days away and...December 18, 2007 - DVD Sales Mixed So Far
Just before Thanksgiving I highlighted my concerns that holiday spending on DVDs could be weaker than expected. At the time, I identified two potential problems....December 17, 2007 - A Legendary Weekend At The Box Office
Proving once again that people will buy tickets when there is appealing in the theatres, the weekend box office rose 38% for the top twelve...December 13, 2007 - The Writer's Strike Is About To Bite
I am surprised that the talks broke off between writers and producers. When the strike was launched there was a lot of discussion on both...December 10, 2007 - UBS Media Conference Recap
I'm back in Chicago and have had some time to digest the UBS Media and Communications Conference. Below are brief comments from every presentation I...December 07, 2007 - Morgan Stanley Upgrades Comcast
Morgan Stanley, which was early, aggressive, and correct with a bearish outlook for cable stocks upgraded its industry outlook yesterday to attractive. Comcast was raised...December 06, 2007 - December 2007 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for December. The signals remain on large cap and growth. As a result, client...December 06, 2007 - I Was Wrong On Comcast
I enjoyed going on TV with my buddy Cody Willard. Unfortunately, since I debated Comcast with Cody and took the bull side, I'll probably never...November 29, 2007 - Rogers Hit Hard
The spectrum auction and build out rules in Canada are more favorable than expected for new entrants. As a result, Rogers Communications are trading down...November 25, 2007 - Weekend Box Office Turns Up
A strong opening for Disney's Enchanted, a surprisingly good opening for This Christmas, and decent showing for another 6 to 8 films led the box...November 23, 2007 - Verizon Raises Prices
Dow Jones ran a news story on Tuesday noting that Verizon was raising the price of its FiOS TV service purchased outside the bundle by...November 21, 2007 - Holiday DVD Sales Could Disappoint Investors
A significant risk for fourth-quarter earnings for the major entertainment conglomerates is an extremely crowded DVD release schedule. The risk is heightened by generally weak...November 20, 2007 - AT&T-Echostar Has Implications For Comcast
With an AT&T acquisition of Echostar apparently imminent, I want to reiterate that while in the short-term investors will see the deal as negative for...November 15, 2007 - Buying More Endeavor/American Apparel
With all the chatter about Lululemon Athletica (LULU) following the New York Times expose' on the seaweed or lack thereof in certain items the company...November 12, 2007 - Good Signs From Lionsgate
Lionsgate reported another confusing quarter. Revenues blew away expectations but so did expenses. EBITDA was a big negative number but the company reported over $21...November 12, 2007 - Box Office Struggles Again
The winning streak at the weekend box office didn’t last long. After last weekend saw a string of six straight down weekends snapped, this weekend...November 09, 2007 - Routinely Good Quarter for Disney
Disney reported 4Q07 EPS of 42 cents adjusted for a tax benefit compared to consensus of 41 cents. Revenues of $8.93 billion matched the $8.98...November 09, 2007 - American Apparel/Endeavor Delivers Good News All Around
In the midst of the carnage yesterday, Northlake had one winner: Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA). EDA is in the final stages of completing its acquisition...November 08, 2007 - Box Office Finally Revives
Last weekend, the domestic box office broke a long slump with receipts rising for the first time in six weeks. American Gangster provided the oomph...November 08, 2007 - Disney 4Q07 Earnings Preview
Disney is expected to report strong 4Q07 financial performance capping another great year. For 4Q, consensus calls for EPS of 42 cents, up 17%, on...November 08, 2007 - AOL and Cable Dragging Down Time Warner
Time Warner reported a solid quarter, ahead of analyst estimates. However, 2007 guidance was maintained suggesting that the 4Q will be weaker than expected. At...November 08, 2007 - News Corporation On A Roll
Looks like a real good quarter for News Corporation. Results for 1Q08 are ahead of expectations. This should be very comforting for shareholders as the...November 05, 2007 - November 2007 Model Signals
There were no changes to the signals from Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for November. Large cap and growth remain favored over small/mid cap...November 02, 2007 - Rogers Communications Reports Another Good Quarter
Rogers Communications reported another excellent quarter with revenues, EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow rising 13%, 26%, 61%, and 91%, respectively. These figures were at...November 02, 2007 - Good News At CETV Keeps On Flowing
Given the proximity of Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) annual analyst meeting on October 19th to the third quarter earnings report, I figured there would...October 29, 2007 - Box Office Strength Flows Through Regal's Results
Not much to say about Regal Entertainment's third quarter earnings report. Given the well-chronicled strength in the box office, Regal produced very good results as...October 29, 2007 - Another Blowout Quarter For Apple
Apple reported another great with upside to Mac unit volumes and operating margins producing much better than expected EPS of $1.01. Numbers had been rising...October 26, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Meeting Recap
The CETV analyst meeting that brought me to Bucharest, Romania, wrapped up just before the open of NY trading last Thursday. All is well. The...October 26, 2007 - NII Holdings Gets Abused
NII Holdings, (NIHD) had a rough day yesterday. Following its 3Q earnings report and conference call before the open, the shares fell 20%. The loss...October 25, 2007 - More Bad News On Comcast
Comcast reported disappointing 3Q07 results. More importantly, the tone of management comments about a number of issues was quite cautious and does not support their...October 15, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Gains Option To Increase Ownership In Ukraine
The column I posted last week providing an overview of Central European Media Enterprises already requires updating. In it I mention that CETV was likely...October 11, 2007 - An Overview of Central European Media Enterpises
Since I'll be spending most of next week in Bucharest, Romania at the annual analyst meeting for Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), I thought an...October 09, 2007 - Pirates, Cars, and Rats
While preparing my fourth quarter box office preview column last week, I came across some interesting and positive data concerning Disney. One of the worries...October 05, 2007 - Trimming The Tree of Apple Profits
With the market ramping and Apple and other tech stocks leading the way, I sold a portion of Apple in many client accounts on Friday...October 05, 2007 - NII Holdings Falls Sharply on Brazil News
Yesterday NII Holdings (NIHD), one of Northlake's long positions, fell by more than 5% on huge volume. At one point in the morning the shares...October 03, 2007 - Fourth Quarter Box Office Preview
Earlier today, I provided a brief wrap-up of the excellent third quarter performance of the box office which rose at least 15%. Looking ahead to...October 03, 2007 - Third Quarter Box Office Is A Blockbuster
The final totals are in on the third quarter box office and as I have chronicled the results are spectacular. According to data I pull...October 01, 2007 - October 2007 Model Signals
There are no changes to the signals from Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for October. The market cap model continues to flash a strong...October 01, 2007 - Ukraine Elections Positive For Central European Media Enterprises
Ukraine held elections for the third time in four years over the weekend. The pro-Western block of parties that originally formed the Orange Revolution were...September 26, 2007 - Key Questions Heading Into Earnings Season
With quarterly earnings reports set to pour in starting next week, I thought I'd provide a brief overview of what to look for in each...September 24, 2007 - Box Office Update
The weekend box office fell 2% for the top 12 grossing films. This breaks a string of 10 consecutive up weekends. The drop-off vs. last...September 21, 2007 - More Debate on Comcast
Following my post yesterday on Comcast, my buddy, hedge fund manager and soon to be anchor on the Fox Business Channel, Cody Willard, replied with...September 20, 2007 - Mea Culpa on Comcast
Mea culpa. Comcast made a new low for this latest down move yesterday, falling more than 3% on what looks like its highest volume day...September 18, 2007 - Forget The Time Warner Breakup Stories
I want to echo the comments about Time Warner made yesterday by Chris Atayan, my RealMoney.com colleague. Despite renewed speculation, a breakup of the company...September 17, 2007 - NY Times Shares at 20 Year Low!
New York Times shares traded below $20 yesterday for the first time since April 1997. As recently as June, NYT was over $26. The stock...September 17, 2007 - Review of Recent Market Action
Periodically when the market is in an unusually volatile period I like to look at a performance of a wide variety of indices in order...September 14, 2007 - Will Consumer Slowdown Cut Into Comcast's Growth?
Cable stocks have been poor performers all year. Things started badly when Comcast raised it s capital spending forecast in conjunction with its 4Q06 earnings...September 14, 2007 - About That iPhone Price Cut
The following quotes come from a new report on the iPhone from Bernstein Research: "Apple could conceivably sell iPhone hardware at a substantial loss while...September 07, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Gains Control of Ukraine License
Central European Media Enterprises announced earlier this week that it had gained control of its broadcasting license in Ukraine. This is very good news as...September 06, 2007 - New iPods Overshadowed By iPhone Price Cut
As the Apple iPod event was going on yesterday, I posted this comment on RealMoney.com: "New colors for the Shuffle, a redesigned Nano focused on...September 04, 2007 - September 2007 Model Signals
For the third consecutive month there were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models. The signals remain large cap and growth. Client portfolios...September 03, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Attracts Important New Shareholder and Director
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) announced yesterday that it had sold 1.275 million shares at $86 for $110 million to Igor Kolomoisky and given him...September 03, 2007 - Summer Box Office Shows Finishing Kick
The summer box office ended with a bang with the best ever Labor Day weekend. Led by the latest edition of Halloween series, the box...August 30, 2007 - Apple iPod Event on September 5th
Earlier this week, Apple sent out invitations to a "special event" on September 5th. The invitation clearly signals iPod related announcements. The better websites in...August 28, 2007 - Summer Box Office Record Falls
The weekend box saw another gain, rising 4.9% vs. a year ago, the 7th straight up weekend. Quarter to date the box office is now...August 22, 2007 - Strong Quarter Boosts American Apparel
Outside of ETFs, Northlake clients own only one stock that is not involved in media or telecom. The company, Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA), is a...August 20, 2007 - Special Market Comment
It seems appropriate to make a comment on the market following the sharp downside volatility over the past few weeks. However, to be perfectly honest,...August 20, 2007 - Box Office Remains Strong
The box office continues to roar with the top 12 movies up 23% this past weekend. Last week marked the fifth straight up week and...August 16, 2007 - Brief Apple Update
I have been waiting to round out long positions in Apple and build new positions for clients. SInce the stock brokedown and the market collapsed,...August 16, 2007 - International Box Office Strength
One of the things I have not stressed enough in my comments on the box office has been the strength of the international box office....August 15, 2007 - Market Returns Since the All-Time Highs in July
The sell-off since the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average made all-time closing highs on July 19th has been broad. All the major indices...August 13, 2007 - Summer Box Office Sizzle Continues
Investors continue to flock to the nation's theatres to escape the heat and take their mind off the stock market. The weekend box office rose...August 09, 2007 - Cablevision Results Cause Comcast Pain
Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) took a serious dive yesterday, trailing the market action all day including a 3% drop when the DJIA was up close to 200...August 09, 2007 - News Corporation Looking Good
News Corporation (NWS) reported a very solid fourth quarter to wrap up a great fiscal 2007. Revenue and EBITDA rose 9% and 19%, respectively, with...August 09, 2007 - Cablevision Results Fall Short of Estimates
Cablevision (CVC) reported weaker than expected 2Q07 results and lowered 2007 guidance dealing another blow to the bull case for cable. Results were weak pretty...August 08, 2007 - Box Office Strength Continues
It seems as though everyone is going to the movies to take their minds off the lousy stock market. The weekend box office rose 36%...August 08, 2007 - Looking More Favorably on Dreamworks Animation
Paul Allen announced that he is dramatically reducing his remaining position in Dreamworks Animation. Following up on the sale of 12 million shares last November,...August 07, 2007 - August 2007 Model Signals
There were no changes of Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for August. The signals continue to be Large Cap and Growth. The large cap...August 07, 2007 - Virgin Media Delays Sale
Virgin Media announced that it was delaying the sale of the company. The brief press release indicated that financial and strategic buyers continue to express...August 02, 2007 - Ukraine Shortfall Pressures CETV Despite Otherwise Great Results
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported second quarter revenues and EBITDA above estimates. However, the composition of the results caused concern among investors leading to...August 02, 2007 - Disney Earnings Growth Continues Unabated
Disney (DIS) reported another strong quarter. EPS of 58 cents exceeded the 55 cent consensus estimate with revenues in line with expectations at $9.05 billion....August 01, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Earnings Preview
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reports second quarter earnings tomorrow morning. CETV is the largest TV broadcaster dedicated to serving Central and Eastern Europe and...July 31, 2007 - Disney 3Q07 Earnings Preview
Disney (DIS) faces a tough comparison when it reports its 3Q07. Projected EPS of 55 cents are up just 4% vs. a year ago. Analysts...July 31, 2007 - Good Quarter, Bad Reaction For Rogers Communications
Rogers Communications (RCI) reported 2Q07 earnings on July 31st. The results were at the upper end of expectations and management raised the high end of...July 30, 2007 - The Simpsons Drive Huge Gain at the Box Office
A bull market existed at one place over the weekend: the nation's movie theatres. Thanks to a huge opening for The Simpsons Movie and good...July 27, 2007 - Earnings Looking Good So Far
Between Wednesday's market close and Thursday's market open, four stocks held widely by Northlake clients reported earnings and held conference calls. Apple (APPL) did quite...July 25, 2007 - Summer Box Office Update #2
As I expected, the summer box office momentum resumed at the end of June. Since June 29th, the box office is up 11%, ahead of...July 24, 2007 - Apple 3Q07 Earnings Preview
My friend and Real Money colleague, Bob Faulkner, is handling the Apple conference call for the website this quarter. Bob specializes in technology so his...July 24, 2007 - Another Good Quarter for AT&T
While there were a couple of issues with AT&T's 2Q07 earnings report, overall I think the results were good with underlying trends supporting the investment...July 23, 2007 - Comcast Bidding for Virgin Media?
Big headline is something called City A.M. in the UK claims an inside source says that Comcast is considering a bid for Virgin Media. While...July 23, 2007 - Summer Box Office Growth Still On Track
The third quarter improvement in the summer box office continued over the weekend but at a slower pace. Led by the new Adam Sandler film,...July 20, 2007 - Financial Times Writes Up Central European Media Enterprises
The Financial Times posted an interesting article on CETV and its role in consolidation of European TV stations. The article touched on CETV as a...July 18, 2007 - No SIgns of Upturn at Gannett
Gannett (GCI) reported another poor quarter as expected. There was nothing in the numbers to signal less pressure on revenues was around the corner. In...July 17, 2007 - Good News: Central European Media Enterprises Acquires Minority Interests in Slovakia
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), a name familiar to former Street Insight subscribers as my favorite long-term growth idea in media, announced some good news...July 17, 2007 - Summer Box Office Back On Track
After a weaker than expected June, the summer box office is now on track for an all-time record. With Harry Potter and the Order of...July 13, 2007 - Purchasing Comcast At Last
After writing positively about Comcast (CMCSA) for two years on Media Talk and in my contributions for theStreet.com, I finally decided it was time to...July 02, 2007 - July 2007 Model Signals
I received the latest monthly updates Sunday night from Northlake's Market Cap and Style models. The Market Cap model continues to flash a very strong...June 25, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Joins Russell and Receives Good News In The Czech Republic
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) rose to a new all-time high on Friday. The shares have been unusually strong over the last few weeks even...June 21, 2007 - Barron's Discovers Rogers Communications
Barron's Online gave Rogers Communications (RCI) a nice write-up yesterday, succinctly outlining the bull case. Barron's noted the positive dynamics of the Canadian wireless market...June 14, 2007 - Stable Pricing Bullish For Comcast
One of the reasons I remain bullish on Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) is that the much feared price war over the components of the triple play –...June 14, 2007 - Scripps Onlne Competitor Gets Bought Out
Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that Providence Equity was taking a control position in shopping comparison website Nextag.com. Nextag is the #2...June 14, 2007 - News On Northlake Stocks
Several stocks in the Northlake portfolio have had newsworthy items over the past week. Here is a recap of the latest news, all of which...June 08, 2007 - Advertising Growth Remains Below Par
According to AdAge.com, advertising spending in the first quarter fell by 0.3% excluding paid search. The data is from a study by TNS Media Intelligence....June 06, 2007 - Summer Box Office Update
The big three summer movies have now each been in theatres for more than two weeks. Together they are on track to gross about $900...June 05, 2007 - Regal Entertainment Competitor Completes IPO
Yesterday several brokerage firms initiated coverage on recent IPO Cinemark Holdings (CNK), the third largest operator of movie theatres. Not surprisingly, the underwriters are providing...June 04, 2007 - June 2007 Models
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for June. The signals remain large cap and value. The large cap signal remains...May 31, 2007 - Lionsgate: Good Results and Outlook But As Usual Confusion
Lionsgate (LGF) shares are trading down about 4% following the release of the company's 4Q07 results and 2008 guidance. As usual, the accounting is complicated...May 31, 2007 - Bullish News For NII Holdings
NII Holdings (NIHD) shares rose over 3% yesterday following an announcement that the company would be issuing $1 billion in new convertible notes and buying...May 30, 2007 - Disney Radio Sale Set To Close
While Disney (DIS) shareholders digest the box office and stock market reaction to Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, the company announced details of...May 29, 2007 - Pirates Sets Sail Under Moderate Winds
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End performed in line with expectations pulling in $156 million over the Memorial Day weekend to set a new...May 24, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Pulls Back On Czech News
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have pulled back this week amid news out of the Czech Republic concerning the awarding of new digital television...May 22, 2007 - Valuevision At Critical Juncture
Valuevision (VVTV), owner of the ShopNBC, the #3 home shopping channel, reported disappointing 1Q08 results after the close. Similar to QVC and HSN, ShopNBC had...May 21, 2007 - Shrek The Third Off To A Good Start
Shrek The Third beat expectations this weekend as I thought it would. The total box office of $122 million is the third highest opening weekend...May 21, 2007 - Virgin Media Takeover Speculation Revived
As I noted last week, it seemed possible that Virgin Media (VMED) might be back in the crosshairs of private equity when one of its...May 18, 2007 - Shrek The Third Hits Theatres
The second big movie of the summer season, Shrek The Third, hits theatres today (actually showings began at 10 PM on Thursday night but those...May 17, 2007 - A Hedge Fund Manager Responds To Comcast Going Private
In response to yesterday's post about the Bernstein analysis of Comcast as a private equity buyout candidate I received an email from my good friend...May 16, 2007 - Is Comcast A Candidate For A Private Equity Buyout?
One of the ways I keep up on all things media is through a Google email alert on Providence Equity, which is the major media...May 15, 2007 - Where Are All The New Cable and Satellite TV Customers Coming From?
One oddity in the current multichannel television landscape is that all the major players are gaining subscribers despite what most observers would consider a pretty...May 15, 2007 - Virgin Media Shareholder Speaks Out
In an SEC filing yesterday, Franklin Mutual Advisers indicated that it is seeking talks with management and other shareholders of Virgin Media (VMED) in light...May 14, 2007 - Media Madness for May 14, 2007
Lots of Madness in Mid-May following the completion of quarterly earnings season: • The Wall Street Journal speculates that a merger between the NBC Universal...May 14, 2007 - Solid Results for Viacom
Viacom (VIA) reported slightly better than expected 1Q07 results. Trends did not differ greatly from analyst expectations but the risk was to the downside so...May 09, 2007 - Another Good Quarter For Disney
Disney (DIS) reported very good 2Q07 results driven by strong margin performance across all five operating segments. Better profitability allowed EPS to easily exceed consensus...May 08, 2007 - Taking Profits on Japan
Northlake clients have owned a position in Japan via the iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) for over two years. Until yesterday that is. At the...May 08, 2007 - Disney: Slowing Growth, High Expectations Raise The Bar
Margin expansion should propel Disney (DIS) to another quarter of greater than 10% growth in operating income when it reports 2Q07 results after the close...May 08, 2007 - Warner Music: Might Be Stabilizing But No Upside
Warner Music Group (WMG) reported slightly better than expected 2Q07 results with revenues of $784 million and EBITDA of $96 million both soundly beating analyst...May 07, 2007 - Spiderman 3 Spins A Massive Web
Spiderman 3 blew away the all-time opening weekend box office brining in $148 million in domestic box office. The old record was set last year...May 04, 2007 - Good Quarter and Great Guidance From Central European Media Enterprises
1Q07 results and 2007 guidance from Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) are very positive. My bullish interpretation was further reinforced following the conference call and...May 04, 2007 - Wrapping Up A Busy Week
I covered eight media earnings calls this week in addition to closing the books on the month of April and getting fresh updates on Northlake's...May 03, 2007 - CBS 1Q07 Earnings: I Am Still A Seller
CBS (CBS) 1Q07 results were in line with estimates. EPS of 33 cents matched the consensus while revenues very slightly exceeded consensus. EBITDA fell a...May 03, 2007 - Cablevision 1Q07 Earnings: Going Private But Meaningful
After listening to the Cablevision (CVC) conference call, my initial impression that the cable bears came away with more ammunition should have been a more...May 03, 2007 - May 2007 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models for May. The Market Cap model continues to flash an extremely strong signal favoring...May 02, 2007 - Another Great Quarter For Rogers
Rogers Communications (RG) reported another very strong quarter, continuing a string of positive news that has led to a double in the stock over the...May 02, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises 1Q07 Earnings Preview
I am having a hard time getting a read on expectations for 1Q07 earnings from Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). I expect very strong results...May 02, 2007 - Time Warner 1Q07: Stock Looking As Good As It Has In Some Time
Time Warner (TWC) reported slightly better than expected 1Q07 results highlighted by strong operating profits at AOL and Cable and better than expected performance against...May 02, 2007 - Media Madness
Time for some mid-week media madness: • Everyone is talking Dow Jones (DJ) so I don't believe there is a lot left to say. I...May 02, 2007 - Time Warner Cable: First Quarter As Public Company Shows Promise
Time Warner Cable (TWC) reported good 1Q07 results. Investors will cheer the solid performance at the company's legacy cable systems and signs of improvement at...May 01, 2007 - News Corp Bidding For Dow Jones
I would use strength in newspaper stocks away from Dow Jones (DJ) to take profits. The Wall Street Journal is a far different asset than...May 01, 2007 - Weekend Box Office: Spiderman is Coming
The weekend box office was extremely week, declining 27% against the same weekend a year ago. The total haul of $75 million was the lowest...April 30, 2007 - Rogers Communcations 1Q07 Earnings Preview
Rogers Communications is expected to report 1Q07 EPS of 18 cents on revenues of $2.03 billion. Those figures appear to be in US dollars but...April 30, 2007 - Verizon 1Q07 Earnings Offer Upside
Verizon 1Q07 earnings were right on target with EPS of 54 cents and revenues of $22.6 billion right in line with the consensus estimates. Key...April 30, 2007 - Comcast: Buy on Weakness
Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) reported solid first-quarter earnings of 26 cents per share on revenue of $7.39 billion. These numbers were extremely close to consensus estimates and...April 27, 2007 - Lots of Shine to Apple
Apple (AAPL) 2Q07 results were spectacular and the feared "even more conservative than usual guidance" failed to materialize. I think the shares should be higher...April 27, 2007 - Regal Entertainment Has A Great First Quarter
Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares rose 4% following better than expected 1Q07 earnings. RGC was able to convert the strong 1Q box office into better margins...April 27, 2007 - Excellent Results From NII Holdings - $100 Stock Price Within Reach
NII Holdings (NIHD) 1Q07 numbers were virtually on top of my estimates across the board. Every financial and subscriber number on a corporate and country-by-country...April 25, 2007 - The Bloom Comes Off the Scripps Rose
E.W. Scripps (SSP) reported in line 1Q07 earnings but guidance for 2Q and implied guidance for 2007 is well below street estimates. In my preview...April 25, 2007 - Apple 2Q07 Earnings Preview
My colleague at StreetInsight.com, Ben Thomas, will be providing officail coverage of Apple's earnings report for the site. I'll be listening to the call and...April 25, 2007 - Regal Entertainment and NII Holdings 1Q07 Earnings Previews
Regal Entertainment (RGC) and NII Holdings (NIHD) report before the open on Thursday. I'll be visiting with clients out of town most of Wednesday and...April 23, 2007 - San Jose Mercury News Clears Jobs of Criminal Activity in Options Probe
In a lengthy article, the San Jose Mercury News is reporting that it is unlikely that Steve Jobs will be charged with a criminal offense...April 23, 2007 - Monday Morning Media Madness
Here is your Monday Morning Media Madness: • On a year over year comparison basis, it was the worst weekend of 2007 for the box...April 20, 2007 - Gannett: Still Cheap But Still To Be Avoided
Special thanks to my intern, Megan Brinkman, a soon-to-be graduate of Northwestern's MBA program, who did most of the work on GCI this quarter due...April 20, 2007 - New York Times: Still No Upturn in Sight
New York Times (NYT) reported mixed 1Q07 earnings. Results were basically in line with analysts estimates and recent management commentary but there were no signs...April 20, 2007 - AT&T Finally Getting Some TV Customers - Should We Care?
AT&T (T) rose almost 1% yesterday, possibly in response to Wednesday's afternoon's press release indicating that the company's U-Verse TV offering was beginning to gain...April 19, 2007 - Mid-Week Media Madness
Time for a little mid-week Media Madness: • It appears that David Poland and I aren't the only voices proclaiming that "movie theatres are dying"...April 18, 2007 - Motorola 1Q07 Earnings Offer Little Hope For A Near-Term Turnaround
The message from the 1Q07 results from Motorola (MOT) could be that the worst is over. However, you can also draw the conclusion that earnings...April 18, 2007 - Private Equity Comes To Canada - Officially
It is now official that private equity has arrived in Canada. BCE Inc. (BCE), formerly Bell Canada, has ">announced that is negotiations with a group...April 17, 2007 - Dow Jones 1Q07 Provides Upside Surprise
Dow Jones (DJ) kciked off the 1Q07 reporting season for media compananies with better than expected performance thanks to strong ad pricing at the Wall...April 17, 2007 - More Comcast Internet News
Just a few hours after Monday Morning Media Madness noted that Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) was building some potentially valuable and underanalyzed internet assets, the following crossed...April 16, 2007 - Monday Morning Media Madness
Here is your Monday Morning Media Madness for April 16, 2007: • A tough comparison against a $40 million opening for Scary Movie 4 pulled...April 13, 2007 - Follow-Up On Endeavor/American Apparel
Back on April 5th, following a press release from Endeavor Acquisition Corp (EDA), updating investors on its acquisition of American Apparel (AA), I noted the...April 12, 2007 - Comcast CEO Gives Bullish Interview
Comcast shares are traded up sharply yesterday in a lousy tape following publication of a couple articles on Bloomberg reviewing an interview with CEO Brian...April 11, 2007 - Private Equity Comes To Canada - Good News For Rogers
Private equity speculation comes to Canada. More rumors about a takeout of BCE Inc (BCE), formerly Bell Canada, emerged yesterday with speculation about a buyout...April 09, 2007 - Reservations for Zell's Purchase of Tribune
Sam Zell's ESOP driven takeover of Tribune (TRB) is being met with a lot skepticism by the mainstream business press and newspaper industry observers. The...April 05, 2007 - Endeavor's American Apparel Purchase To Proceed
Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA) announced that the deal to purchase American Apparel (AA) will proceed. AA met the requirement that 2006 earnings before interest, taxes,...April 04, 2007 - April 2007 Model Signals
For the second consecutive month there were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style models. The signals are still flashing large cap and value....April 03, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises Update
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares had an outstanding first quarter, gaining 26.4%. Part of the gains recouped a $5 decline from mid-November through year...April 02, 2007 - Monday Morning Media Madness
Here is your Monday Morning Media Madness in honor of tonight's final game of March Madness. • Is anyone else bored by the prospect of...March 30, 2007 - Disney's March Quarter Shaping Up Well
As mentioned in my overview of the 2007 Prudential Midwest Media Day, I came away from my meeting with Disney (DIS) with increased confidence in...March 29, 2007 - Prudential Midwest Media Day 2007
I spent Tuesday at Prudential Securities Midwest Media Day. This is a great conference using a unique format combining very small group discussions with one-on-one...March 26, 2007 - More Media Madness
The market had its best week since 2003. The weekend is 75 degrees and sunny in Chicago. Same forecast for today. All the windows are...March 22, 2007 - National Cinemedia: Initial Research Observations
The underwriters of the National Cinemedia (NCMI) IPO launched coverage this week. NCMI is the largest company in the rapidly growing cinema advertising industry and...March 21, 2007 - Sub Prime Meltdown Advertising Impact
In yesterday's Media Madness post on the Northlake Capital Management home page, I mentioned that Reuters stated that 40% of sub prime loans had been...March 20, 2007 - Media Madness
A few small items in the media world that are cluttering up my desk: • Last week FCC Chairman Kevin Martin appeared before Congress for...March 19, 2007 - Upside From Comcast's Internet Advertising Business
In what should be good news for Comcast (CMCSA/K), the Wall Street Journal reported in its Weekend Edition that Comcast is unhappy with its current...March 19, 2007 - Apple Acting Well
Apple (AAPL) held up well during the market pullback and now is leading to the upside, trading at its highest price since the breakdown following...March 16, 2007 - Internet Continues To Take Advertising Share
The Wall Street Journal had an article reviewing the latest data from TNS Media Intelligence, a firm that tracks media spending patterns. TNS recently reported...March 14, 2007 - Some Data Challenging the "Box Office is Dead" Hype
Not to beat a dead horse but I wanted to follow-up on my post yesterday where I stated yet again that the hype that the...March 12, 2007 - 300 is 1 Reason To Be Bullish on Movie Stocks
Did you hear the hype that the domestic movie business is dead? Don’t believe it. I wish I had 300 reasons to tell you why...March 08, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises: Entering Russia?
BroadbandTV News yesterday noted an unconfirmed report in a local Russian newspaper that Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) was negotiating to enter the Russian TV...March 05, 2007 - Correction or Bear Market?
As usual, Ned Davis Research (NDR) has some interesting data on last week's sell-off in regards to answering the question whether we have entered a...March 05, 2007 - Regal Declares $2 Per Share Special Dividend
Regal Entertainment (RGC) announced that it would be using a portion of the proceeds it received from the IPO of National Cinemedia (NCMI) to pay...March 01, 2007 - Strong Quarter For Echostar Communications
Echostar (DISH) reported very good 4Q06 earnings. EPS, revenue, and EBITDA were 34 cents, $2.6 billion, and $615 million compared to consensus estimates of 32...March 01, 2007 - March 2007 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap or Style models for March. The signals remain Large Cap and Value. As a result in the...March 01, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises: Even Better Than Expected
I will likely have some follow-up comments on CETV after I check in with management and my key analyst contacts. Below is my commentary as...February 28, 2007 - Expecting A Strong Quarter From Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) should report robust 4Q06 growth. I am forecasting revenues to rise 17% and EBITDA to grow 22%. Strong ratings in...February 28, 2007 - Charter Communicaitons: Getting Better But Not Good Enough
Charter Communications (CHTR) final 4Q06 results very closely matched the preliminary results reported on February 9th. Revenues rose 11.7% and EBITDA rose 10.3%. Revenues matched...February 27, 2007 - NII Holdings Reports Solid Results and Offers Upbeat Guidance
NII Holdings (NIHD) reported very good 4Q06 results that were inline to slightly ahead of analyst estimates and guidance. Headline numbers, country level results, and...February 27, 2007 - Cablevision Results Are Good News For The Cable Industry
The most important takeaway from 4Q06 results from Cablevision (CVC) is that there is no negative read through for the cable industry at large. CVC...February 22, 2007 - Regal Enterainment: Post National Cinemedia Update Looks Good
Regal Entertainment (RGC) completed an SEC filing detailing the impact of the IPO of National Cinemedia (NCMI). The filing supports my bullish view of RGC...February 21, 2007 - Thoughts on Sirius-XM Merger
There was a lot less discussion of the Sirius Satellite (SIRI) - XM Satellite (XMSR) merger announcement on Real Money, Street Insight andother business news...February 21, 2007 - Interesting New Report on Apple
Bear Stearns is out this morning with a detailed new report on Apple. Bear is not changing its buy rating or earnings estimates. Instead, the...February 20, 2007 - Year To Date Box Office Update: So Far So Good For Regal
Following several sluggish weeks, the box office found some traction this weekend as several new releases exceeded expectations leading to an 18% gain vs. the...February 20, 2007 - Good Results From Rogers Communications
Rogers Communications (RG) reported very strong 4Q06 results. Wireless was the star performer with margin expansion exceeding analyst estimates. The Cable and Media divisions also...February 15, 2007 - Rogers Communication 4Q06 Earnings Preview
Rogers Communications (RG) preannounced solid subscriber results that should be supportive of a good quarter when the company reports full EPS after the close on...February 15, 2007 - Bullish Indiactor For NII Holdings?
One of the comparables I used in my thus far successful purchase of NII Holdings (NIHD) was Millicom International (MICC). NIHD offers wireless telephone service...February 12, 2007 - Lionsgate Finally Reports A Good, Clean Quarter
Lionsgate (LGF) reported a good quarter. EPs of 19 cents matched estimates, while revenues of $255 million did not fall materially short of the $258...February 09, 2007 - Tribune: Earnings Stabilizing But No Growth
Tribune (TRB) reported slightly better than expected 4Q06 earnings with adjusted EPS coming in at 65 cents against a consensus estimate of 61 cents. Revenues...February 09, 2007 - Disney: Strong 1Q07 Earnings Support Higher Target Price
Disney (DIS) reported much better than expected 1Q07 earnings with EPS coming in at 50 cents against a consensus estimate of 39 cents. Revenues were...February 08, 2007 - Good Quarter For DirecTV -- Upside Remains
Technical difficulties prevented me from listening to the DirecTV (DTV) 4Q06 conference call. The following comments are based upon the press release and initial analyst...February 06, 2007 - Regal Entertainment 4Q06 Preview
Box office comparisons should ease this coming weekend with the fourth installment in the very popular Hannibal Lecter series but the big news this week...February 05, 2007 - February 2007 Model Signals
Both of the models in Northlake's ETF rotation strategy sent new signals for February. The market Cap model shifted from Mid Cap to Large Cap...February 05, 2007 - Comcast: Capital Spending Should Not Be Penalized
Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) reported 4Q06 results that were very close to extremely high expectations. Guidance for 2007 is also very close to current analyst expectations with...February 05, 2007 - Time Warner 4Q06 Good Enough
Time Warner (TWX) reported 4Q06 results that were very close to analyst estimates across the board. There don't appear to be any surprises in the...January 30, 2007 - Scripps Guidance Ignites Questions; Too Soon To Buy
E.W. Scripps (SSP) shares are deservedly down sharply following poor 1Q07 guidance issued in association with its 4Q06 earnings report. A re-evaluation of the prospects...January 30, 2007 - Verizon Should Keep Working Higher
Verizon (VZ) reported solid 4Q06 results, closely matching analyst estimates is most key areas. VZ is a huge company with lots of closely followed metrics...January 29, 2007 - A Look at Apple's Valuation
After reading through a lot of analyst comments about Apple's earnings, I think I captured the general consensus well with my follow-up piece. Most analysts...January 29, 2007 - A Potential Headwind For Comcast
Keep on eye out for some negative publicity that could hit Comcast (CMCSA/K) in the next few weeks. Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) and Comcast are...January 29, 2007 - Sears Holding Follow-Up
Late last year, I sold my position in Sears Holding (SHLD) on the basis that I no longer had an edge in analyzing the shares....January 25, 2007 - One Reason The Market Has Done So Well
I am not a trader and Northlake's investment strategy is designed to outperform on a relative basis so whether the market goes up or down...January 24, 2007 - Radio Industry Should Boost Dividends
Credit Suisse had an interesting report earlier this week about the radio industry that has broader implications. The thesis was that radio operators should establish...January 22, 2007 - Motorola: Gains Off Analyst Meeting Don't Last
I know tech is very weak today so it might not make sense to read too much into it but Motorola (MOT) is giving up...January 22, 2007 - Tribune Auction Fails
My colleague at StreetInsight.com, Chris Atayan, made a really good point that the failed Tribune (TRB) auction shows that private equity isn't a cure for...January 22, 2007 - Many Bullish Catalysts For Apple Over Next Six Months
Apple (AAPL) shares continue to pull back sharply following release of the company's latest quarterly earnings report. I remain surprised by the size of the...January 19, 2007 - Motorola 4Q Earnings Review
Motorola (MOT) reported 4Q earnings in line with its recently lowered forecast. Key to the stock performance over the next six months is the 2007...January 18, 2007 - Motorola 4Q06 Earnings Preview
There won't be much fresh news when Motorola (MOT) reports its 4Q06 tomorrow morning. The preannouncement the first week of January has already delivered the...January 18, 2007 - Apple December Quarter: Great But Provides Some Ammunition For Bears; Bears Will Run Out of Ammo, However
What follows is my analysis on Apple immediately following completion of the company's conference call to discuss December quarter earnings. I'll have more to say...January 18, 2007 - Central European Media Enterprises: I Have Company For My $100 Target
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) broker out to new highs this week following an upgrade from Czech-based analyst Tibor Bokor of Wood Company. Tibor sharply...January 18, 2007 - Endeavor Acquisition Due Diligence
Last week I had an opportunity to talk with Elizabeth Haynes of Haynes & Company Consulting about the acquisition of American Apparel (AA) by Endeavor...January 16, 2007 - Apple December Quarter Earnings Preview
Despite the sharp advance in Apple (AAPL) shares over the past week, I think the setup is favorable heading into the company's earnings report after...January 16, 2007 - National Cinemedia IPO Ready To Go: Should Be Good For Regal
One of the reasons that Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares have risen 10% since mid-December and consistently been on the 52 week high list is the...January 12, 2007 - In Major Change, Scripps Looking To Exit Newspapers
E.W. Scripps (SSP) is trading at a 52 week high following the company's announcement that it is considering alternatives for its newspaper business. This is...January 11, 2007 - Why We Got A Buying Opportunity in NII Holdings
NII Holdings (NIHD) rebounded nicely yesterday (and even more today) but I want to expand on some of the reasons the stock sold off since...January 10, 2007 - Apple's iPhone: Initial Impressons
There is no doubt that the new iPhone from Apple, Inc. (AAPL) – they officially changed their name yesterday by dropping "computer" – has a...January 09, 2007 - Endeavor Gains First Buy Recommendation
Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA) gained its first analyst coverage which not surprisingly was a buy rating. Lazard picked up EDA with Buy rating and a...January 09, 2007 - Rogers Splits and Reports Subscriber Statistics
Rogers Communications (RG) shares began trading on a 2 for 1 split adjusted basis yesterday when the company also announced preliminary 4Q06 subscriber statistics for...January 08, 2007 - We Have Good Company In Endeavor
I have to admit that I am flying a little blind on Northlake's long position in Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA), the blank-check company that has...January 05, 2007 - NII Holdings: New Buy Provides Unique Exposure To Emerging Markets Wireless
One of my favorite presentations at December's UBS Media & Communications Conference was from NII Holdings (NIHD). NIHD offers wireless telephone service using Nextel's iDEN...January 05, 2007 - MacWorld Preview: How Expecations Impact Apple
MacWorld convenes next week and expectations of investors for good news out of Apple Computer (AAPL) are high. The shares have bounced significantly off their...January 04, 2007 - January 2007 Model Signals
It's a new year but there were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap and Style model signals for January. The Market Cap Model continues to...January 03, 2007 - 2006 Box Office Wrap-Up
Good breadth of popular movies appealing to all the major movie-going demographics allowed the box office to recover during the holiday season, pulling the fourth...December 29, 2006 - Positions Recap at The Turn of the Year
As 2006 draws to a close and a new year begins, I thought it would be appropriate to provide a brief update on the positions...December 29, 2006 - Apple Files 10-Q With Options Update
In hindsight, it appears that some of December's weakenss in Apple shares (down about 10% prior to today's open) was due to speculation about developments...December 29, 2006 - McClatchy Sells Minneapolis Newspaper for Peanuts
McClatchy (MNI) announced it was selling the Minneapolis Star Tribune to a private equity outfit for $530 million. MNI will also receive a $160 million...December 27, 2006 - Apple Shares Remain Unusually Weak
The point of my post about the Forrester report on Apple's iTunes sales was not really to discuss AAPL. Instead, I was trying to point...December 26, 2006 - iTunes Sales Are Not Collapsing
Leaving aside the debate concerning why Apple Computer (AAPL) shares have been acting so poorly and whether it is deserved, I think it is fair...December 22, 2006 - Could The Market Be Too Bullish Regarding The Impact of Private Equity?
There is no doubt that flood of money into private equity funds and the subsequent investment of these funds in buyouts of public corporations has...December 22, 2006 - How Bad Are DVD Sales?
I don’t want to pick a fight with Jim Cramer and Doug Kass, my fellow contributors at theStreet.com's family of websites, but they are exaggerating...December 21, 2006 - Details in Endeavor's SEC Filing Support Bull Case
Endeavor Acquisition Corporation (EDA) submitted an SEC filing yesterday with lots of details about its acquisition of American Apparel. Most importantly, the company provided historical...December 20, 2006 - Endeavor Aquisition Buys American Apparel and Northlake Buys Endeavour
Following the news that American Apparel is being purchased by Endeavor Acquisition Corp. (EDA), I decided to take a small position in EDA for client...December 15, 2006 - Why Are Network TV Ads Selling Well When Ratings Are Poor?
Bernstein Research was out yesterday with a really interesting piece of research noting the dichotomy between the poor ratings performance of the major broadcast television...December 15, 2006 - Rogers Communication: New Buy Targeting 25% Upside
I have spent this week completing my follow-up work on Rogers Communications (RG), my second favorite presentation from last week's UBS Media and Communications conference...December 13, 2006 - Recent Apple News
Lots of Apple Computer (AAPL) news today. UBS is out with a note claiming that Apple will enter the wireless via a mobile virtual network...December 09, 2006 - December 2006 Model Signals
My attendance at the UBS Media Conference led to the delay in getting the latest model signals up on the website. Fortunately, the models did...December 08, 2006 - UBS Media Conference 2006
Every year I attend the UBS Media Conference in NY to get a face-to-face update with many companies in the media industry. My goals are...December 01, 2006 - Commercial Is Cable's Next Big Opportunity....But Is The Industry Ready?
Bears Stearns Cable Analyst Spencer Wang recently held a conference call with a couple of experts on the opportunity that the cable industry has to...December 01, 2006 - Bud Latest Company To Shift Advertising Mix
Advertising Age is reporting that Anhueser-Busch (BUD) "2007 media plans call for significant increases in marketing spending." However, not surprisingly, the company plans to shift...November 30, 2006 - Technology Advances Assist Media Growth
Rob Martorana, my editor at StreetInsight.com, and I had an email exchange the other day surrounding the advances in digital technology for media playback. Rob...November 27, 2006 - Disney Radio Deal and Weekend Box Office
Just before Thanksgiving, Disney (DIS) and Citadel Broadcasting (CDL) announced a restructuring of CDL's deal to buy DIS' radio assets. The total value of the...November 21, 2006 - Sold Sears Holdings
I decided to step to the sidelines on Sears Holdings (SHLD). I sold all shares held by clients and personally last Thursday and Friday. I...November 17, 2006 - Holiday Box Office Kicks Off This Weekend
This weekend marks the start of Hollywood's biggest box office period besides the summer. Led by the wide releases of the latest James Bond film,...November 17, 2006 - Sears Holdings Gives The Bears Some Ammo
Below are two comments I wrote for StreetInsight.com in the hours following Sears Holdings (SHLD) earnings report. Overall, the quarter was OK but left some...November 15, 2006 - Sears Holdings 3Q06 Earnings Preview
Sears Holdings (SHLD) reports before the open tomorrow. In fact, it will probably have reported by the time you read this. The company doesn’t host...November 14, 2006 - NTL Bidding For ITV: A Bad Idea
Shares of NTL Incorporated got a well deserved 5% spanking yesterday after last week's rumors of the company's interest in a takeover of leading UK...November 13, 2006 - Disney's Swing Factors for 2007
4Q06 earnings from Disney (DIS) left open the debate over whether the company 's four year string of double digit operating income growth is about...November 10, 2006 - Disney Numbers Are Good But Sell The News Wins Out
Disney (DIS) reported strong 4Q06 earnings. EPS of 36 cents compared to a rising 33 cent consensus and revenues of $8.8 billion were ahead of...November 10, 2006 - Good Quarter For CETV But Someone is Unhappy
Despite the extremely negative stock price action, I found Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) Q06 earnings report to be quite good. Good enough, in fact,...November 08, 2006 - NTL Likely To Limp Along Awaiting Success of Virgin Rebranding
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) reported mixed 3Q results yesterday. I feel the details are worse than the optimistic tone management had used during several recent Wall...November 08, 2006 - Another Strong Quarter On Tap For Disney But 07 Is What Matters
Disney (DIS) is expected to report strong 4Q06 earnings to wrap up its fourth consecutive year of double digit EPS growth. EPS are expected at...November 08, 2006 - Cablevision Reports Inline: Implications Limited
I see little impact from Q06 results from Cablevision (CVC), either on CVC or on the broader cable industry. The company's results were very close...November 08, 2006 - Google Throws A Lifeline to the Newspaper Industry
The launch of a newspaper industry ad buying marketplace by Google (GOOG) is an interesting development. Studies have shown that newspapers only reach a fraction...November 08, 2006 - Should We Believe The Hype on Borat?
Whenever something new and unusual comes along in business, it is easy to claim that it is an industry changing event. The of Borat is...November 08, 2006 - Looking For A Good Quarter and Optimistic Guidance from CETV
Tomorrow, I expect Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) to report another strong quarter in its seasonally weak 3Q. Romania and Ukraine will again be the...November 02, 2006 - CBS: Lack of Growth Offsets Cheap Value and Financial Strength
CBS Corporation (CBS) reported 3Q EPS that mostly matched street expectations. EPS of 42 cents were 2 cents above consensus but revenues of $3.38 billion...November 02, 2006 - November 2006 Model Signals
Both Northlake's Market Cap and Style models sent new signals for November. The Market Cap model moved from large cap to mid cap and the...November 01, 2006 - Time Warner Earnings: Limited Growth But Stock Looks Decent
Time Warner (TWX) reported 3Q06 results that were largely inline with consensus estimates. The shares initially traded down about 2% on a sell the news...October 31, 2006 - A Halloween Update for Lionsgate
I haven’t written much about Lionsgate (LGF) since my ill-timed sale this spring when the shares were 25% lower. Obviously, I am annoyed at the...October 30, 2006 - Clear Channel Sale Overwhelms Earnings News
Buyout news makes the 3Q06 report this morning from Clear Channel (CCU) pretty irrelevant as far as the stock price is concerned. Nevertheless, as a...October 26, 2006 - Good Quarter For Regal Offset By Share Issuance
Regal Entertainment (RGC) reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2006 earnings. Revenue of $675 million rose 7.5% ahead of the consensus estimate of $650 million. Good performance on...October 25, 2006 - BellSouth: Going Out in Style
In what will likely be its final quarter as a public company, BellSouth (BLS) reported solid quarterly earnings beating estimates on the back Cingular and...October 25, 2006 - AT&T Performing Well Given Challenges
AT&T (T) reported adjusted 3Q06 EPS of 63 cents, ahead of the 58 cent consensus estimate. 2 cents of the upside was widely expected following...October 25, 2006 - Private Equity Shows Interest In Tribune
Newspaper stocks rose strongly yesterday after the Wall Street Journal reported that private equity groups were showing an active interest in Tribune (TRB). On its...October 24, 2006 - Will Internet Bypass Hurt Cable? Not Anytime Soon
Yesterday my colleagues at theStreet.com, Jim Cramer and Cody Willard wrote opposing opinions about the attractiveness of investing n cable stocks. I have been bullish...October 22, 2006 - NBC's Strategic Changes: The Future of Network TV?
I think the money quote from last Thursday's widely discussed article on steep cost cutting at NBC Universal came from Bob Wright: “As we reprioritize...October 22, 2006 - Fourth Quarter Box Office Off To A Good Start
The weekend box office for the top twelve movies was up 26% vs. last year according to BoxOfficeMojo.com. That makes it four for four so...October 19, 2006 - Follow-Up Comments On Apple
I have a few follow-up comments to my earnings call coverage of Apple Computer (AAPL). First, analyst commentary fell along the lines I expected. Estimates...October 19, 2006 - Apple Reports Another Great Quarter
Apple Computer (AAPL) reported another excellent quarter. There is absolutely no reason that anyone who was bullish prior to the quarter should change their opinion....October 19, 2006 - Motorola: A Few Kinks
Although all client holdings of MOT were sold a few months ago, I am posting the latest earnings summary on the main page as the...October 19, 2006 - Dow Jones: Transition To Digital Underway But Too Early To Own
Dow Jones (DJ) reported earnings a day ahead of schedule due to the announcement of its acquisition of the 50% interest in Factiva owned by...October 19, 2006 - Tribune: As Bad The Cubs
Tribune (TRB) reported an unimportant quarter form the perspective of the near-term stock price. It is not just that the near-term will be dominated by...October 19, 2006 - New Tork Times Headline Remains: Do Not Buy
New York Times (NYT) reported EPS of 10 cents but adjusted for one-time items, the figure could be as high 16 cents. Guidance was 11-15...October 17, 2006 - Apple September Quarter Earnings Preview
While Apple Computer (AAPL) shares are always volatile around earnings, I think the set up heading into this quarter is unusual. On the one hand,...October 17, 2006 - Solid Quarter From Scripps
E.W. Scripps (SSP) reported better than expected 3Q06 earnings driven by strong performance from the company’s cable networks and political advertising at the company’s TV...October 17, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises In NY Times and Wall Street Journal
Yesterday’s New York Times had a major article about Ronald Lauder’s investment in Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). In an odd coincidence, the Wall Street...October 16, 2006 - Insider Buying at Sears Holdings
On Friday, theflyonthewall.com, citing a report in Barron’s Online, noted that there was some meaningful insider buying at Sears Holding (SHLD) recently: A director at...October 13, 2006 - Updated Advertising Forecast For 2007
Yesterday, Merrill Lynch analyst Lauren Fine lowered her 2006 and 2007 forecasts for U.S. advertising. Lauren has been ahead of the curve this year with...October 12, 2006 - Time Warner Working Higher
Time Warner (TWX) closed at a 52 week high yesterday. In fact, it was the highest close since January 2005. I suspect that investors are...October 12, 2006 - Another Attempt To Take Cablevision Private
I finally had a chance to review all of the news stories and analyst reports about the Dolan family’s latest attempt to take Cablevision (CVC)...October 12, 2006 - Volatility in NTL On Recent News
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) shares have sold off the last few days, giving back most of the gains achieved after several management presentations at media conferences...October 05, 2006 - Newspaper Industry Outlook Remains Bleak
Newspaper industry fundamentals continue to look pretty bleak. According to Citigroup, August was the worst month so far this year for advertising growth with industrywide...October 03, 2006 - October 2006 Model Signals
The weak growth signal given by Northlake’s Style model for September turned into a weak value signal for October. As a result, I swapped all...October 03, 2006 - Third Quarter Box Office Wrap
Following three straight weekly declines, the box office rose 6.6% vs. a year ago this past weekend. The weekend is actually the first one of...September 29, 2006 - Near-Term Good News For Disney
Yesterday, in the post immediately below, I mentioned that Disney (DIS), News Corp (NWS, NWS.a), and Time Warner (TWX) were all trading at 52 week...September 28, 2006 - Nothing But Static in Radio Stocks
The New York Times and Goldman Sachs were both out recently with analysis of the radio industr. Commentary in both reports was generally negative, noting...September 28, 2006 - Big Media Stocks Performing Surprisingly Well
Wow! Time Warner (TWX), Disney (DIS), and News Corporation (NWS, NWS.A) all made 52 week highs yesterday. On the one hand I shouldn’t be surprised...September 27, 2006 - Time Warner Gets Good Price For AOL Germany
Investors have responded favorably to the nice price that Time Warner (TWX) received for its AOL access business in Germany. Citigroup is projecting total proceeds...September 27, 2006 - More Apple Cell Phone Rumors
ThinkSecret.com is reporting that Apple Computer (AAPL) will be launching a cell phone through Cingular early in 2007. The report says that Cingular will have...September 26, 2006 - Despite Possible Sale Upside in Tribune is Limited
Yesterday, Tribune (TRB) gave up about 25% of its gains since announcing a settlement with the Chandler Family and creation of a committee of independent...September 26, 2006 - Zune Not A Near-Term Threat To iPods
Apple Computer (AAPL) shares have continued to rise following the introduction of Microsoft's Zune music player. Apple has benefitted from growing recognition of the company's...September 25, 2006 - What's Going On With Yahoo!?
Yahoo! (YHOO) guides down and its shares trade off 12%. On the same day, Viacom (VIA, VIA.b), Time Warner (TWX), Disney (DIS) and CBS (CBS)...September 25, 2006 - Debating Growth and Value
Last week on Real Money, there was a debate on the growth vs. value question. It began when my colleague, Ed Stavetski asked, “As the...September 25, 2006 - Dow Jones Lowers Third Quarter Guidance
Following a strong second-quarter earnings report and guidance that was deemed by many observers, including myself, as conservative, Dow Jones (DJ) shares rallied from $33...September 22, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Analyst Meeting Goes Well and Affirms Near-Term and Long-Term Upside
I spent last Thursday at the annual analyst meeting for Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). The news was good as CETV slightly raised EBITDA guidance...September 13, 2006 - Time Warner Selling Some Magazines
Time Warner (TWX) announced the details of its plan to slim down its magazine division. The company will sell 18 smaller titles in a deal...September 13, 2006 - NY Times Selling Its TV Stations
New York Times (NYT) announced that it is selling its TV station group. The group contains nine stations that management says will produce $43 million...September 13, 2006 - Sears Ups Share Buyback
Sears Holding (SHLD) announced that it is increasing its share repurchase authorization by $500 million. About $118 million remains on the prior $1.5 billion authorization....September 13, 2006 - Is Eddie Lampert Using Sears To Make A Run At Home Depot?
Tuesday's rumor has it that Eddie Lampert is putting Sears Holding (SHLD) cash to work buying Home Depot (HD) shares. SHLD traded up on the...September 13, 2006 - Impressions of Apple's Product Announcements
Overall, the Apple Computer (AAPL) announcements were in line with my expectations. I almost got right the new wireless device that will get the video...September 12, 2006 - Thoughts on NTL Management Presentation
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) CEO Stephen Burch made a presentation at Jefferies 4th Annual Communications Conference. The company made no comments and took no questions related...September 12, 2006 - New Products Due Today From Apple
Sometime later today, Apple will unveil its long awaited new products and services. Consensus seems firmly to predict that new higher capacity iPod nanos with...September 11, 2006 - A Deal Coming Between Telecom Italia and News Corp?
Today’s news that Telecom Italia plans to sell its mobile phone unit and focus on media investments reminds me that despite multiple compression and secular...September 06, 2006 - September 2006 Model Signals
After seven months signaling value, Northlake’s Style model shifted to growth for September. There were no changes in any of the underlying factors this month....August 30, 2006 - Why Traditional Media Is Losing On The Internet
I subscribe to a blog written by Bob Lefsetz. Bob writes about the music business and has done so for more than 20 years. His...August 30, 2006 - Cruise-Paramount Split, Part 2
Here are some further thoughts on the Cruise-Paramount split (Part 1). This post takes to look at Tom Cruise as a business by comparing the...August 30, 2006 - Ronald Lauder Sells Half Of His Control Position in CETV
Apparently, Ronald Lauder has decided to pay for his $135 million acquisition of Gustav Klimt’s Adele Bloch-Bauer I by monetizing half of his 15.8% stake...August 28, 2006 - Cruise-Paramount Split, Part 1
Given all the publicty created by the split between Tom Cruise and Paramount, I thought I'd offer some impressons from the perpsective of the stock...August 28, 2006 - Disney Radio Deal In Jeopardy?
Last week saw a flurry of acquisition and divestiture activity in the radio industry including news that the buyer of Disney's radio assets, Citadel Broadcasting,...August 27, 2006 - Clarification On Sears Holdings
Looking back at my recent posts on Sears Holdings (SHLD), I may have left the impression that improving same store sales trends are necessary to...August 27, 2006 - Making Money In Media Despite Weak Ad Spending
According to data from TNS Media Intelligence, advertising spending in the U.S., excluding paid search, fell by 0.3% in May 2006. According to TNS, this...August 22, 2006 - I Am Famous. Sort Of.
I Am Famous. Sort Of. Back on August 1, 2006, Jim Cramer of CNBC and theStreet.com, did a segment on Comcast on his nightly Mad...August 21, 2006 - Does The Cable Industry Require Another Hugely Expensive Network Upgrade?
I am surprised that cable stocks have held up since last Thursday’s Wall Street Journal article which indicated a recent report from Cable Labs, the...August 21, 2006 - Is Sears Cutting Its Advertisng Expenditures Too Much?
I am no expert in retailing despite Northlake's long position in Sears Holding (SHLD) so when my colleague at StreetInsight.com, Jeff Bagley, wrote a scathing...August 21, 2006 - Sears Results Better Than Stock Price
Sears Holdings (SHLD) earnings reports was largely in line. However, the stock traded sharply lower, giving up most of its gains so far in August....August 16, 2006 - NTL Sees Renewed Interest From Private Equity Firms
News broke yesterday in London that NTL Incorporated (NTLI) was again subject to takeover interest from private equity firms. Later in the day, Bloomberg reported...August 16, 2006 - Sears Holdings Earnings Preview
While fireworks are likely in the shares of Sears Holdings (SHLD) after the company reports earnings before the open today, there has been a virtual...August 16, 2006 - Icahn Ups His Stake In Time Warner
The Wall Street Journal is a few days late in reporting that Carl Icahn has upped his stake in Time Warner. When this news first...August 16, 2006 - Newspapers In The News
There were some interesting developments in the newspaper industry yesterday. First, Nelson Peltz has filed with the SEC indicating he has an ownership stake in...August 15, 2006 - Cable Networks Growth Is Slowing
I have been bearish on stocks with heavy exposure to the cable networks business due to concerns that growth was slowing dramatically while the industry...August 15, 2006 - Another Good Weekend For The Box Office
The weekend box office was up again, making it four straight weekends. Eight of the last nine weeks have also been up so the summer...August 10, 2006 - August 2006 Model Signals
This note was originally written and published on StreetInsight.com on August 2nd. With all the trauma from my the complete crash of my pirmary PC...August 09, 2006 - Strong Quarter For Disney But 2007 Concerns Limit Upside - For Now
Disney (DIS) reported much better than expected 3Q06 EPS. EPS of 53 cents easily beat consensus of 44 cents (3Q EPS were aided by 1-2...August 09, 2006 - More Cable and Satellite Companies Report
Yesterday saw earnings releases from Cablevision (CVC), Charter Communications (CHTR), and DirecTV (DTV) allowing investors to take a snapshot of the current competitive environment in...August 09, 2006 - Amazing! Lionsgate Reports A Routine Quarter
By recent standards, Lionsgate (LGF) reported a very routine quarter. There was little excitement in the numbers, full year guidance for March 07 was affirmed,...August 09, 2006 - Cheap Is Not A Reason To Own Media Stocks
A new study by McKinsey & Co., highlighted at AdAge.com, does a good job of explaining why television advertising is facing such strong growth headwinds....August 08, 2006 - Disney 3Q06 Earnings Preview
The real excitement surrounding 3Q06 earnings from Disney (DIS) will concern how it impacts the outlook for FY07. Despite strong fundamentals and consistent double-digit growth,...August 08, 2006 - NTL: Not Bad But Could Have Been Better
I’d classify the 2Q06 earnings and conference call from NTL Incorporated as mixed. Mixed is not quite good enough for the short-term as that means...August 07, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Good For Regal
I didn’t get a chance to do a formal review of 2Q06 earnings from Regal Entertainment (RGC) due to my PC crash. The shares had...August 07, 2006 - NTL 2Q06 Earnings Preview
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) reports tomorrow morning. This stock has been my personal Waterloo but I think that investors are overly pessimistic especially in light of...August 07, 2006 - Lionsgate 1Q07 Earnings Preview
Lionsgate (LGF) reports its 1Q07 on Wednesday after the close. With the key theatrical releases coming this fall and winter, LGF is looking at a...August 04, 2006 - Time Warner Still Offers Little Upside
Time Warner (TWX) shares have responded well to 2Q earnings, regaining much of the losses since early July. However, the shares still remain well below...August 04, 2006 - Taking Profits on Motorola
After much gut-wrenching action and analysis, I decided to take profits on Motorola (MOT) after owning it in most client accounts for almost two years....August 03, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Good News From Czech Republic
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported solid 2Q06 results, comfortably matching my expectations. As usual, the composition of results was a little different than what...August 03, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Earnings Preview
Due technology issues the following post is being added now even though it was written over 24 hours ago 2Q06 will be a tricky quarter...August 03, 2006 - CBS: Cheap But No Momentum
CBS Corporation (CBS) reported 2Q06 results very close to expectations and reaffirmed guidance for 2006. Nevertheless, the shares are dropping sharply. I think there could...July 28, 2006 - Regal Entertainment Earnings Preview
Ahead of Monday's earnings report, shares of Regal Entertainment (RGC) are within 1% of their 2006 high and up almost 9% so far this year....July 28, 2006 - Casino Stocks Have Lots of Downside
"A looming capacity expansion in hotel rooms and casino space, rising gas prices, an uptick in airfares, the possible peaking of the Las Vegas residential...July 27, 2006 - Comcast Reports Another Good Quarter: Time For The Bears To Hibernate
Comcast (CMCSA/CMCSK) reported another strong quarter with most key financial and subscriber measures beating estimates. On top of similar strength in 1Q, management is raising...July 27, 2006 - Scripps Looks Better Than Expected
E.W. Scripps (SSP) shares should rebound after the company reported better than expected 2Q06 EPS and provided guidance in line with current expectations. Most importantly,...July 25, 2006 - NTL Update and Response to Sky's "Free" Broadband Offer
NTL Holdings (NTLI), have been under severe pressure lately due investor fears about the intense competitive environment for broadband in the UK. As the largest...July 24, 2006 - Confident Motorola Sharply Increases Share Buyback
Apparently, Motorola (MOT) believes its stock price is too cheap. The company just announced that it will complete its prior $4 billion, three year repurchase...July 24, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Still Looks Good For Disney and Regal
After 17 days in theatres, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest is the fastest grossing film in history. The movie remains comfortably on track...July 21, 2006 - Dell Blows Up - Little Impact on Apple
Apple Computer is trading off over 1% pre-market due to Dell Computer’s ugly preannouncement. While the health of the PC market is clearly in question,...July 21, 2006 - Some More Thoughts on Apple
My friend Jeff Bagley did his usual great job covering the Apple Computer (AAPL) earnings release and conference call. I fully endorse his bullish view...July 20, 2006 - Apple is Back and There is More to Come
Thanks to my friend and fellow StreetInsight.com contributor, Jeff Bagley, for again allowing me to reproduce his excellent summary of Apple's June quarter earnings report...July 20, 2006 - Dow Jones Shows Signs of Life
Dow Jones (DJ) reported better than expected 2Q06 earnings. EPS rose 15% to 39 cents, ahead of the consensus estimate of 35 cents. Revenues actually...July 20, 2006 - Motorola Comes Through and the Stock Climbs
Beat and raise. That is what investors have demanded from MOT to reward the stock. Last night's earnings report did the trick. EPS of 34...July 20, 2006 - Crisis Events Can Be Bullish Once They End
My pals at Ned Davis Research (NDR) provided a reminder about how the markets respond well to crisis events. I'm not sure the latest phase...July 18, 2006 - New York Times: Still Struggling
New York Times (NYT) reported adjusted EPS of 46 cents in line with guidance. Most key financial measures closely matched analyst estimates including revenues, costs,...July 18, 2006 - Another Dull Quarter From Gannett
2Q06 earnings and commentary from Gannett (GCI) can best be described as more of the same. Neither the numbers nor the Q&A provided significant new...July 18, 2006 - Some Thoughts Ahead of Apple's Earnings
I wrote the following before my Barron's showed up on Saturday with a bullish cover story on Apple Computer (AAPL). Barron's has previously written negatively...July 18, 2006 - Disney Pulls Back But Its Not Due To Pirates
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (POTC) continues to rule the box office. Nevertheless, Disney (DIS) shares have sold off since the movie was...July 18, 2006 - Motorola Earnings Preview
Motorola (MOT) reports after the close on Wednesday, July 19th. Despite weak stock price performance and negative datapoints from the supply chain, analysts expect MOT...July 16, 2006 - Analyzing Disney's Pirates Treasure Chest
The daily box office results for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (POTC) continue to be astounding. After its record breaking opening weekend, POTC...July 13, 2006 - Taking A Look At Regal's Ownership of National Cinemedia
Regal Entertainment (RGC) was one of the only green stocks on my monitor yesterday and has held up extremely well against the losuy market envrionment...July 13, 2006 - One More Stab At AOL - Time Warner Heading Lower
Time Warner (TWX) shares fell for the 7th straight day yesterday, no doubt continuing the negative reaction since word spread that AOL might switch strategies...July 10, 2006 - Disney's Pirates Brings Big Profits
Consumers and investors tend to focus on box office and forget profits when looking at domestic box office numbers. Several analyst reports out today are...July 10, 2006 - A Look at Records Set By Pirates of the Caribbean
The numbers for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (POTC) are truly enormous even in an era when studios, theatres, and moviegoers have become...July 10, 2006 - Pirates Provides Big Boost To Box Office
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (POTC) blew away even the most optimistic estimates and broke all opening weekend records pulling in $132 million...July 07, 2006 - Wall Street Journal Confirms AOL Rumors
Yesterday's Wall Street Journal carried an article confirming the rumors I have been writing about concerning major changes at AOL. The most important takeaway is...July 07, 2006 - July Model Signals
Northlake's Market Cap model completed its transition for July by flashing a large cap signal for the first time since June 2005. As a result,...July 05, 2006 - Prada, Not Superman, Keeps The Box Office Growing
July 4, 2006 was a pretty good weekend for the domestic box office, making it seven straight up weekends against the easy 2005 comparisons. With...July 05, 2006 - Apple Implicated in Stock Options Scandal
Analysts are predictably defending Apple Computer (AAPL) on last week's news that the company is caught up in an options backdating scandal. Merrill Lynch did...July 05, 2006 - Mac Sales Looking Good For Apple
News broke last week that Microsoft (MSFT) won't have a fresh operating system or a fresh update to Office for the Christmas selling season. On...July 05, 2006 - Major Layoffs Coming at AOL? If So, It Is Bad News For Time Warner
I read a post on Henry Blodgett's blog about two weeks ago alluding to the major layoffs at America Online (AOL). I do not know...July 05, 2006 - Tribune Dutch Auction Results Provide Near-Term Support
Tribune (TRB) shares had a big pop last Tuesday after the company announced results of its dutch auction. There was no follow-through since then and...June 27, 2006 - Univision Sale Supports Upside in CETV But Has Few Other Ramifications
The Univision (UVN) auction came grinding to an end with announcement that the company would be sold for $36.50 per share or $12.3 billion. The...June 27, 2006 - Mid-Year Updates Provide Little Cheer For Newspaper Stocks
Newspapers companies presented to analysts last week in the annual mid-year review. I did not attend the meetings or listen in on any webcasts but...June 26, 2006 - Another Up Weekend For The Movies
If my bullish thesis on the summer box office is to come to fruition, it should be evident over the next few weeks with the...June 23, 2006 - Conference Call With NTL CEO
On Monday morning, UBS Cable Analyst Aryeh Bourkoff hosted a conference call with Stephen Burch, CEO of NTL Incorporated (NTLI). I thought the call went...June 19, 2006 - Box Office Continues To Strengthen
The box office was up for fifth consecutive weekend, led by a solid second weekend for Cars and respectable openings for three new films: Nacho...June 19, 2006 - Upfront Moving Slowly So Far For TV Networks
So far, the results of the upfront selling season for network TV advertising have been slow. The upfront occurs every May and June when the...June 19, 2006 - Is There Excess Value At Tribune?
One of the theories behind breaking up Tribune (TRB) is that the broadcast television assets are worth a significant premium to the current valuation of...June 16, 2006 - Lionsgate Earnings and Guidance Provide No Catalyst
On Thursday, LionsGate Entertainment (LGF) reported mixed 4Q06 results and announced 2007 guidance which was inline with expectations. The shares are responded well initially, rising...June 16, 2006 - Japan's GDP Report Supports Bull Case
Earlier this week, the 1Q06 GDP report in Japan was revised. Several statistics noted in this ">Bloomberg article article discussing the report support my bull...June 12, 2006 - Disney Downgraded at Citigroup
On top of the slightly weaker than expected opening for Cars, Disney caught a downgrade from Citigroup which has the shares down about 3% this...June 12, 2006 - Increasing Positions in Japan
After raising cash and reducing risk exposure by selling positions in the Central Europe and Russia Fund (CEE), (down a stunning 20% since the sale...June 12, 2006 - Cars Not Quite As Good As Expected; Overall Box Office Up Again
Cars opened at the low end of expectations with $63 million failing to provide a catalyst I had been counting on for Disney (DIS). I...June 09, 2006 - The Journal Stays on the Tribune Case
The Wall Street Journal had another front page article on Thursday about Tribune (TRB), followed by a Heard on the Street column on Friday. Both...June 08, 2006 - Interesting Developments at Tribune
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday about some interesting developments at Tribune (TRB). The three Board members nominated by the Chandler family voted against...June 06, 2006 - My Expectations for Disney's Cars
Disney (DIS) made a new 52 week high in Monday's abysmal market, likely anticipating this coming weekend’s opening of Cars. I think the Cars hype...June 05, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Croatia For Sale?
This story from BroadbandTVNews.com caught my eye: The Serbian Pink media group has set its sights on the Croatian national commercial station Nova TV. Speaking...June 04, 2006 - Unusual Options Activity in NTL
I am not sure what to make of this but last week two separate reports surfaced about heavy buying of NTL call options. Here is...June 02, 2006 - June Model Signals
The June signals from Northlake's models led to significant shifts in client and personal portfolios on Thursday. Overall, the changes moved portfolios from being small...May 31, 2006 - Does The Emerging Markets Sell-Off Indicate Their Run Is Over?
In a post yesterday on Real Money, my colleague Jim Cramer noted that despite massive sell-offs in equity markets in Brazil and India, he wasn't...May 30, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Report: X-Men Show Their Powers
If this summer is "the last stand" for the box office bulls, the third installment of the X-Men franchise should make shorts nervous. Debuting as...May 26, 2006 - Satellite Radio Stocks Crumble But Don't Buy Terrestrial
I am not a fan of the satellite radio stocks although I am an extremely happy and enthusiastic Sirius subscriber. I never listen to CDs...May 24, 2006 - Memorial Day Box Office
My friend and fellow money manager, Doug Kass, is making a good call to short Dreamworks Animation (DWA) on the back of less than stellar...May 23, 2006 - The Da Vinci Code Holds Very Well On Monday
The Da Vinci Code grossed $8.9 million Monday. That is very strong, 11th all-time for a Monday according to MovieCityNews.com, trailing only franchises like Star...May 23, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Shares Under Pressure
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares fell 6% on Monday to close at $58.50. The stock got as low as $55.30, down more than 11%,...May 23, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Market Not Company Issues
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares fell 6% on Monday to close at $58.50. The stock got as low as $55.30, down more than 11%,...May 22, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Report: The Da Vinci Code Comes Through
Despite poor reviews, The Da Vinci Code exceeded estimates with weekend ticket sales of $77 million in North American theatres. The weekend gross exceeded estimates...May 19, 2006 - Why Traditional Media Companies Don't Get The Internet
Can you name a single big success on the internet that was built off an already established brand? I suppose news sites like MSNBC.com, CNN.com,...May 19, 2006 - "Sears Profit, Shares Surge; Doubts Linger"
The headline of this post is what appeared in the Chicago Tribune this morning. The article goes on to quote three retailing experts, each of...May 17, 2006 - Sears Holdings 1Q06 Earnings Preview
Sears Holdings (SHLD) will have reported earnings by the time you read this. Since I get a lot out of writing previews by setting my...May 15, 2006 - Poseidon Sinks The Box Office But It Will Float
Poseidon sunk the box office as the big budget film flopped, bringing in just $20 million and opening in second place. Poor performance from Poseidon...May 11, 2006 - Viacom: Better But Needs More Growth
Viacom (VIAB) reported a solid quarter, which I would characterize as slightly above expectations. Viacom's good results follow better than expected results at Disney and...May 10, 2006 - Will M&A Save Media Stocks?
Well, that didn’t last very long! Newspaper and radio stocks soared on Monday in response to Jeff Smulyan's plan to take Emmis Broadcasting private. EMMS...May 10, 2006 - Disney's Results Will Keep The Shares Moving Upward
Results from Disney (DIS) look awfully good to me. EPS came in at 37 cents against consensus of 31 cents. I only see a 1...May 10, 2006 - NTL Earnings and Guidance Support The Bull Case
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) reported 1Q06 earnings as expected including the hoped for acceleration in cost savings synergies from its merger with Telewest. Investors are responding...May 10, 2006 - Viacom Earnings Preview: Forget Tom Cruise, Cable Networks Are Key
Viacom (VIAB) is expected to report weak 1Q06 results due to tough comparisons in 1Q05. Revenue growth is forecast at about 5% with EBITDA rising...May 10, 2006 - Cablevision Comes Through: Stick With Comcast
Cablevision (CVC) shares are up sharply after the company reported better than expected 4Q05 results and announced 2006 guidance for its cable division that is...May 08, 2006 - Cablevision: March 2006 Quarterly Earnings Preview
Cablevision (CVC) should report another strong quarter before the open on Tuesday. Analyst are estimated growth in the mid to upper teens for revenues and...May 08, 2006 - Tom Cruise Falls Short But Regal Still Looks Good
Despite a weaker than expected opening for Mission: Impossible III, the weekend box office rose 24% against easy year ago comparisons. Based on the data...May 08, 2006 - Disney March 2006 Quarterly Earnings Preview
Disney (DIS) reports its 2Q06 after the close on Tuesday. Consensus calls for 31 cents against 32 cents a year ago. DIS has forecast a...May 08, 2006 - NTL March 2006 Quarterly Earnings Preview
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) shares have held onto most of their gains following the early March closure of the company's merger with Telewest. Since that time,...May 08, 2006 - Follow-Up Comments On Central European Media Enterprises Quarterly Earnings
The company's 2006 guidance is actually quite a bit below my prior expectations due to a complete restructuring at TV Nova in the Czech Republic...May 05, 2006 - Warner Music Group: No Wonder Edgar Doesn't Want To Sell
Warner Music (WMG) reported very strong March quarter results this morning. EMI, which is trying to buy the company, now has extra incentive to raise...May 05, 2006 - Unvision: Good Quarter Supports Buyout Valuation
Bidders for Univision (UVN) won’t have to adjust their models very much based upon the company's 1Q06 earnings report. Revenues were about $10 million light,...May 05, 2006 - I Liked DirecTV's Quarter But Market Did Not
I think the numbers from DirecTV (DTV) look pretty good. The results support the company's new strategy to focus on profitable growth even if it...May 05, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Shares Respond Well To First Quarter Earnings
Here are the comments I wrote yesterday as soon as I got off the CETV conference call. I'll post a more complete analysis Monday morning...May 03, 2006 - Cramer Mentions NTL and Yours Truly
Jim Cramer mentioned NTL Incorporated (NTLI) bullishly last night on Mad Money, including a mention of my analysis on StreetInsight.com that is also posted here....May 03, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Earnings and Guidance Due Tomorrow
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reports before the open tomorrow. The company should also provide full year 2006 guidance and possibly comments on 2007. I...May 03, 2006 - Clear Channel: Better Quarter Will Help Short-Term
Clear Channel (CCU) reported better than expected 1Q06 results led by a positive surprise in radio and continued strong growth in outdoor. CCU has easy...May 03, 2006 - Another Mixed Quarter For Time Warner
Time Warner (TWX) reported mixed results. The headline numbers looked real good but after adjustments it was just another quarter of mediocre growth with flat...May 02, 2006 - May 2006 Model Signals
There were no changes to signals from Northlake's Market Cap or Style models for May, which continue to flash Mid Cap and Value. Consequently, the...May 02, 2006 - Time Warner: Cable To The Rescue?
Time Warner (TWX) shares have firmed up recently as investors are taking a more optimistic view of its most important division: Cable. Yes, that's right,...April 28, 2006 - Akeelah Provides Just A Small Boost So Far
My idea to buy Lionsgate (LGF) in anticipation of a ramp in the stock ahead of today's opening of Akeelah and the Bee has provided...April 28, 2006 - New Purchase: Regal Entertainment
I used yesterday's early weakness in the market and in the shares of Regal Entertainment (RGC) to initiate a meaningful though not quite full position....April 27, 2006 - Great Quarter From Comcast
Comcast (CMCSA/K) reported better than expected results. Across almost every important financial and subscriber metric, the results were at the high end of expectations or...April 26, 2006 - Comcast Shares Finally Moving: Will Earnings Support The Move?
I remain bullish on CMCSA which reports before the open tomorrow. I think investors are slowly coming around to my thesis that financial performance over...April 26, 2006 - Solid Quarter From CBS
CBS (CBS) reported better than expected 1Q06 earnings. The shares are not responding indicating that strength in the stock over the last few days anticipated...April 25, 2006 - Some Buy Ideas For Renewed Box Office Growth
It wasn't that long ago when almost everyday I was reading an article or a piece of research talking about the death of the movie...April 25, 2006 - CBS Earnings Preview: 1Q 2006
Since their debut at the beginning of January, CBS (CBS) shares have generally trended lower due to concerns over the company's long-term growth rate and...April 25, 2006 - E.W. Scripps Results Hold Promise
E.W. Scripps (SSP) reported better than expected 1Q06 earnings. The shares are adding another $1 onto yesterday's gains of $1. Whoever was buying yesterday in...April 24, 2006 - E.W. Scripps Earnings Preview
I am leaning more bullishly on the shares of E.W. Scripps (SSP) ahead of its 1Q06 earnings due tomorrow before the open although my recent...April 24, 2006 - Lionsgate Worth A Trade on Akeelah Opening
There could be some excitement around Lionsgate (LGF) this week ahead of Friday's opening of Akeelah and the Bee. LGF shares received a boost last...April 24, 2006 - Analysis of Apple's Earnings
I believe the reason why the AAPL earnings report was initially greeted with enthusiasm was better than expected Mac sales. Since it's AAPL and overly...April 19, 2006 - Apple Computer Earnings Preview
Apple reports it second quarter earnings for the period ending March 31, 2006 in less than two hours. The stock is likely to have a...April 19, 2006 - Motorola: Mixed Quarter, Negative Reaction Deserved
I didn’t like what I read in Motorola's press release or heard on the conference call. I am now looking for an exit price. However,...April 18, 2006 - Newspaper Industry Earnings Wrap-Up
Newspaper companies are among the first to report each quarter. As of today, most of the companies have reported. In the "Continue Reading" section linked...April 18, 2006 - Motorola First Quarter Earnings Preview
Motorola (MOT) reports after the close tonight. The stock has rebounded strongly in recent weeks as analysts have grown more optimistic about global handset growth...April 18, 2006 - Recent Weakness at Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have pulled back over 10% in the last month after jumping about 20% early in 2006. The decline seems...April 11, 2006 - News Wrap Up on NTL
Given Northlake's new long position, in NTL Incorporated (NTLI), I pay close attention to the press reports out of the UK. I follow them via...April 07, 2006 - April Model Signals
I am a little delayed getting up the monthly update on the Northlake's Market Cap and Style models because I wanted to check with Ned...April 07, 2006 - Recap Of Midwest Media Day Conference
I spent Wednesday at Midwest Media Day sponsored by Prudential Securities. It was a unique conference. Pru took over one floor of the hotel and...March 30, 2006 - A Debate Over Apple Computer
Over and StreetInsight.com, where I write daily commentary, there has been a series of posts debating the value of Apple Computer (AAPL) shares. A StreetInsight...March 30, 2006 - How the Internet is Impacting Traditional Media
Several interesting tidbits regarding traditional media and the internet were included in the collection of stories in the latest MediaWorks email I received from AdAge.com:...March 30, 2006 - NTL: The Numbers Supporting the New Buy
Last week, I re-entered NTL Incorporated (NTLI) from the long side after a several month absence. I outlined the rationale behind my decision to buy...March 28, 2006 - Apple and France
There continues to be a lot of chatter about Apple Computer (AAPL) and the potential French law that would force the company to open up...March 27, 2006 - NTL Incorporated: New Purchase For All Clients
Last Friday, I purchased a new position in NTL Incorporated (NTLID – the D will be dropped shortly) across all Northlake client accounts. I think...March 21, 2006 - The Internet Won't Be Replacing Your Cable TV Anytime Soon
One of the blogs I read regularly belongs to Mark Cuban. In a post last week, Mark discusses his view that lack of capacity in...March 21, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Announces Equity Offering
Last week, Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) announced an equity offering. The company appears to be raising cash for future investments as the SEC filing...March 21, 2006 - A Colleague's Perspective on Motorola
A fellow contributor to StreetInsight.com recently wrote a good piece on Motorola (MOT). Jeff Bagley and I share a similar view of stock market investments...March 20, 2006 - Sears Holdings Moves Higher on Good Earnings Report
(SHLD) responded very positively last week to a better than expected quarterly earnings report. Since Northlake clients all own SHLD, I am obviously quite...March 20, 2006 - Another Trip To The Apple Store Reinforces Confidence
It's been a rotten year so far for shareholders of Apple Computer (AAPL). AAPL shares have fallen almost 10% against a gain of close to...March 13, 2006 - Liberty Media: Split In Two Offers Little Near-Term Upside
Not a lot of value added in the Liberty Media (L) 4Q05 earnings release or conference call. As expected, all of the discussion concerned operating...March 13, 2006 - Dreamworks Animation: No Reason To Own
Dreamworks Animation (DWA) 4Q05 earnings were slightly better than expected, coming in at 49 cents after adjustment for two one-time items. Before adjustments, EPS were...March 10, 2006 - Pixar's Earnings Give Disney A Boost
Disney (DIS) continues to act better than any other mega cap media stock. I think there are three reasons behind the good action. First, Bob...March 10, 2006 - Wireless Telephony, Cable, and the AT&T - BellSouth Merger
One impact on the on the cable companies of the AT&T (T) - BellSouth (BLS) merger that I did mention in my previous post was...March 08, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Final Thoughts on 4Q05
As a follow-up to my earnings coverage of Central European Media Enterprises (CETV), I wanted to mention that my spreadsheet now assumes 20% segment level...March 08, 2006 - Does the AT&T-BellSouth Merger Hurt Comcast?
Some observations and thoughts related to cable and media on the AT&T (T) - BellSouth (BLS) merger after reading through all the stuff that my...March 02, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises: Great Quarter and Increased Confidence in Growth Outlook
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported better than expected operating results for 4Q05. Segment revenue of $173 million slightly exceeded management guidance of $171 million....March 01, 2006 - Strong Quarter At Cablevision Could Boost Cable Stocks
Cablevision (CVC) shares are up sharply after the company reported better than expected 4Q05 results and announced 2006 guidance for its cable division that is...March 01, 2006 - March 2006 Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's Market Cap or style models for March. Client portfolios remain long mid caps and value, which I execute using...March 01, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Earnings Preview
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reports before the open on Thursday. I remain optimistic about the shares with the caveat that quarterly are quite volatile...February 27, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Increases Stake in Romania at Attractive Price
One week ahead of its March 2nd 4Q05 earnings report, Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) announced an increase in its ownership of its operations in...February 27, 2006 - Icahn and Time Warner Settle: Upside If TWX Can Sustain Growth
The market has reacted coolly to the settlement between Time Warner (TWX) and Carl Icahn as TWX shares given up all their gains since the...February 27, 2006 - Radio Industry Outlook Hurts Clear Channel
Clear Channel (CCU) shares have given back most the gains which followed the solid 1Q06 guidance the company provided with its 4Q05 earnings report. In...February 27, 2006 - Clear Channel: Outlook Improving
Clear Channel (CCU) reported slightly worse than expected 4Q05 earnings with EPS and revenues just short of estimates. However, everyone was expecting a weak 4Q05...February 23, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Increases Stake in Romania
One week ahead of its March 2nd 4Q05 earnings report, Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) announced an increase in its ownership of its operations in...February 16, 2006 - The Univision Buyout and Central European Media Enterprises
Based on news reports, it appears that Univision (UVN) wants to sell itself for $13 billion. Along with about $1.5 billion in debt that would...February 15, 2006 - Warner Music: Not Ready To Buy. Yet.
One stock I've had my eye on as a possible long is Warner Music Group (WMG). The company reported yesterday and the shares fell slightly...February 15, 2006 - Box Office Picking Up
I continue to think that the big entertainment conglomerates which own movie studios could benefit from a positive shift in sentiment this year if the...February 15, 2006 - Sears Holdings: Recent News Articles Provide Insights
The Chicago Tribune took another shot at Sears Holdings (SHLD) this weekend with an ">article (free registration required) recapping a contractual dispute between the retailer...February 10, 2006 - Sold Lionsgate
Lionsgate (LGF) shares are holding up much better than I expected following the company's disappointing 3Q06 performance and reduction in FY06 guidance. Therefore, I am...February 10, 2006 - Lionsgate Messes Up Again
I was wrong on Lionsgate (LGF). Big time. The company missed its 3Q06 earnings badly with EBITDA, net income, and free cash flow all falling...February 09, 2006 - Lionsgate Earnings Preview
Lionsgate (LGF) reports after the close on Thursday with a pre-open conference call on Friday. Quarterly results for LGF can be quite volatile due to...February 08, 2006 - I'll Take Mickey Mouse Over Bugs Bunny
Despite being stalled for most of the last year, Disney (DIS) has generally trended up over the past three years, rising from the upper teens...February 08, 2006 - Positive Sentiment Change For Media Stocks?
Breakup Time Warner! Univision for sale! Knight Ridder up for auction! Viacom splits in two! Clear Channel spins off its billboards and concert business! Cablevision...February 08, 2006 - Time Warner: The Icahn Report
I was talking with a good friend last week who runs a media-centric hedge fund. I was doing my usual rant regarding the mounds of...February 08, 2006 - DirecTV: Controlled Growth Strategy Might Work
DirecTV (DTV) shares are up about 3% in response to a solid quarterly earnings report. My key takeaway is that the street is beginning to...February 07, 2006 - Apple Anounces New iPod nano
AAPL shares are set to bounce at the open following some supportive analyst commentary and the introduction of a 1G iPod nano. The new nano...February 07, 2006 - Motorola Under Pressure
Motorola (MOT) shares are set to bounce at the open on an analyst upgrade. The gains look small so far, especially against the 16% decline...February 07, 2006 - Disney Comes Through
Disney (DIS) reported better than expected earnings with EPS coing in at 35 cents against analyst estimates taht averaged 30 cents. Estimates will go up...February 03, 2006 - February Model Signals
For February, Northlake's Market Cap model continued to flash a Mid Cap signal as has been the case for every month beginning in September 2005....February 03, 2006 - Disney Earnings Preview: Last Slow Quarter Before Growth Accelerates
Disney (DIS) reports after the close on Monday. Due to timing issues and a tough comparison in home video, the quarter is expected to show...February 02, 2006 - E.W. Scripps: Best Growth In Traditional Media
E.W. Scripps (SSP) shares are responding very favorably to the company's 4Q05 earnings report. I think three factors are at work. First, EPS came in...February 02, 2006 - Comcast: Not Good Enough But I'd Hold On
Comcast (CMCSA/K) reported 4Q05 earnings that were pretty much inline across all metrics. Revenue exactly hit estimates, EBITDA might be considered light but that is...February 02, 2006 - Time Warner: The Street Will Like It, But Not Me
Time Warner (TWX) reported 4Q05 earnings pretty much inline with expectations with revenue and EBITDA both coming in very close to analyst estimates. As usual,...February 02, 2006 - E.W. Scripps Earnings Preview
E.W. Scripps (SSP) reports before the open on Thursday. The company preannounced a shortfall late last year related primarily to continuing disappointing results at the...February 02, 2006 - Comcast Earnings Preview
Comcast (CMCSA/K) reports before the open on Thursday. So far in 2006, CMCSA has risen 7.5%. I think this sets up a big move in...January 31, 2006 - Crash Scores Big In Oscar Nominations
Crash won nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting, Best Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Song in the Oscar nominations announced this morning. While...January 31, 2006 - Insider Buying At Lionsgate
A couple of quick follow-ups to my Weekend Box Office Update that support my bullish trading bias on Lionsgate (LGF). First, this weekend's Barron's contained...January 31, 2006 - Why Apple Is Still A Growth Stock?
Over on Street Insight, my fellow contributor Jeff Bagley and I have been tag-teaming the defense of Apple Computer (AAPL) since the company reported its...January 31, 2006 - Time Warner Earnings Preview: Will The Boredom End?
If there were an equation that measured media and analyst coverage vs. stock price volatility, Time Warner (TWX) would probably produce an answer nearing infinity....January 31, 2006 - Knight Ridder: Weaker Than Peers As Buyout Awaits
While Knight Ridder's earnings report was sloppy with weak December trends, I am surprised the shares would trade down 2% given that the investment case...January 30, 2006 - Lionsgate Story Shaping Up
Lionsgate (LGF – recently renamed from Lions Gate Entertainment) announced the sale of its studio production facilities in Canada for $36.1 million. To be honest,...January 30, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Report: Oscar Nominations Coming Soon
The weekend box office saw the top dozen films gross 5% less than a year ago but with the final weekend in January in the...January 30, 2006 - Thoughts on the Disney-Pixar Merger
It is hard to add value on the Disney-Pixar transaction. I received a dozen virtually identical analyst reports and CNBC was basically DisneyPixarVision for two...January 30, 2006 - Knight Ridder Earnings Preview: Waiting On The Auction
It would be very surprising if anything of substance came from the earnings release and conference for the 4Q05 report by Knight Ridder (KRI). First,...January 30, 2006 - Gannett: A Little Better But Is It Sustainable?
Gannett (GCI) shares are rallied strongly, up about 3%, following the company's fourth quarter earnings report issued before the open on Friday. The action is...January 26, 2006 - Gannett Earnings Preview
Gannett (GCI) wraps up a busy week of newspaper earnings on Firady before the open. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for EPS of $1.41...January 26, 2006 - Dow Jones Showing Some Potential
I have no real complaints with the earnings report or conference call from Dow Jones (DJ). The report and guidance commentary is inline with evidence...January 26, 2006 - Lionsgate Sells An Asset and More Good News Coming
Lionsgate (LGF-the company recently renamed itself Lionsgate) announced the sale of its studio production facilities in Canada for $36.1 million. To be honest, I did...January 25, 2006 - Dow Jones Earnings Preview
I don’t expect much action in Dow Jones (DJ) following the company's earnings report before the open on Thursday. The stock took a big jump...January 25, 2006 - New York Times: Decent Quarter But I Am Not A Buyer
New York Times (NYT) shares are rallied more than 2% yesterday following a decent 4Q05 earnings report. The advance is more notable given that the...January 25, 2006 - More Price Increases From Cable Competitors
Back at year end I came across a research report noting that Dish Network and Comcast were both raising pricies across their entire spectrum of...January 25, 2006 - New York Times: Fourth Quarter Earnings Preview
There should not be too many surprises when New York Times (NYT) kicks off the earnings season for newspaper companies before the open on Tuesday....January 25, 2006 - Central European Media Enterprises Takes Full Control in Slovakia
There was good news out of Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) on Monday as the company announced that it had completed its acquisition of a...January 23, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Report: Finally, People Show Up
The box office had an excellent weekend with the top then films grossing 15% above year ago levels and 16% above the 2004 level. The...January 23, 2006 - The Fiber Threat to Cable
Last week, a fellow contributor to Street Insight, Jeff Bagley, noted via his personal experience how powerful Verizon's all fiber strategy will be in the...January 23, 2006 - Motorola Earnings Summary
Motorola (MOT) shares reacted very poorly to the company's 4Q05 earnings report and 1Q06 forecast. My thoughts on the report are in the "Continue Reading"...January 19, 2006 - Disney to Buy Pixar?
After seeing the lead article in this morning's Wall Street JournaI, I quickly reviewed several research reports from the past month which discussed the potential...January 19, 2006 - Motorola Earnings Preview
Motorola (MOT) reports after the close on January 19th. I outlined my general thoughts on MOT a few days ago. I am expecting a solid...January 19, 2006 - Apple Computer Earnings Summary
Apple Computer (AAPL) reported excellent quarterly earnings as expected. The shares are trading lower, however, due to some controversy over APPL's guidance for revenue and...January 18, 2006 - What To Look For In Apple's Guidance
In my preview note on Apple Computer (AAPL), I failed to provide an update as it relates to March quarter guidance. What the company says...January 18, 2006 - Previewing Apple's December Quarter Earnings
Apple Computer (AAPL) reports after the close today. Following Steve Jobs comments at MacWorld last week estimates have moved up sharply. Jobs guided to $5.7...January 18, 2006 - Taking My Lumps and Selling Yahoo
As outlined below, I bit the bullet and sold all client and personal holdings in Yahoo (YHOO) this morning. I don’t think the YHOO story...January 18, 2006 - NTL's Revised Offer For Virgin Mobile Should Do The Trick
NTL has raised its offer for Virgin Mobile and given minoirty shareholders an option to take stcok in the new NTL. Richard Branson has gone...January 17, 2006 - Weekend Box Office Report: Good For Disney and Lions Gate
The holiday weekend box office did nothing to stop the skeptics worries about faltering ticket sales as total receipts were down 16% from the same...January 17, 2006 - Will Apple Provide Your Cellular Service Soon?
Blogs, press reports, and analysts are all noting that AAPL has received trademarks and patents on a series of products and services under "Mobile Me"...January 13, 2006 - iPod Sales Explode: How Much Upside Is Left in Apple Shares?
Lots of news from Apple Computer (AAPL) this week coming from its annual MacWorld convention. Steve Jobs introduced new Intel-based Macs six months ahead of...January 13, 2006 - Motorola: Looking For One More Move Up Before Selling
Northlake clients have been long Motorola (MOT) for over a year and were well-rewarded in 2005 when the shares rose over 30%. I lightened the...January 11, 2006 - Sears Holding: It's The Stock, Stupid!
"Sears Sees Stingier the Side of Holiday Sales" "Dismal Christmas Puts Heat on Sears Chairman" "Retail Experts Doubt Lampert's Strategies" The headlines in a front...January 11, 2006 - Hostel Provides Support For Lions Gate Entertainment Share Price and Earnings
The last time I posted on Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) was following their presentation at the UBS Media Conference. At the time, I wrote: I...January 08, 2006 - Latest News At NTL
The Sunday Telegraph is reporting Virgin Mobile shareholders want an increase of more than 20% in the original offer while rumors continue to swirl that...January 06, 2006 - Newspapers Flounder As Web Ads Flourish
So far the positive news out of Dow Jones (DJ) that 4Q05 guidance was being raised has done little to rally the newspaper group. I...January 06, 2006 - New Development on Las Vegas Strip Creating Headwind for Casino Stocks
Casino stocks responded negatively to news earlier this week that Boyd Gaming (BYD) was closing its Stardust property on the Strip and would build a...January 06, 2006 - Interesting Datapoint Favoring Growth
Ned Davis Research has an interesting tidbit today in favor of the recent shift in client portfolios from value to growth. As noted in this...January 04, 2006 - Dow Jones Jumps 10%
Dow Jones (DJ) was in the news yesterday as the stock rose more than 10% after the company increased 4Q05 EPS guidance and named a...January 04, 2006 - NTL Likely To Raise Offer for Virgin Mobile This Week
According to reports in the UK press, NTL is going to announce an increase of about 10% in its offer for Virgin Mobile this week....January 04, 2006 - January 2006 Model Signals
I received fresh signals from Northlake's Market Cap and Style models yesterday that resulted in swapping all value exposure to growth at the open of...January 04, 2006 - Lehman Launches Coverage of Central European Media Enterprises
A London-based analyst from Lehman Brothers launched coverage on CETV yesterday. I have uploaded a copy of his report. If you want to read it,...December 31, 2005 - NTL-Telewest Merger Receives Regulatory Approval
NTL Incorporated (NTLI) shares are rose sharply on Friday after the U.K. Office of Fair Trading cleared NTL's merger with Telewest Global (TLWT). Apparently, there...December 30, 2005 - Chronicles of Narnia Performing Very Well for Disney
With the kids out of school and lots of folks on vacation, everyday is a Saturday for the box office, and Disney (DIS) looks like...December 29, 2005 - Czeching in on Central European Media Enterprises
received an email just before Christmas with an update on TV advertising in the Czech Republic. According to TNS A-Connect, during November advertising was...December 29, 2005 - Thinking About The Movie Business
I wrote the following for StreetInsight.com while vacationing last week in chilly Bayfield, WI on the shores of Lake Superior: I've been working "lightly" this...December 29, 2005 - Continuing the Discussion of Cable Stocks
In response to my latest post on a la carte subscriptions in the cable industry, Rob Martorana, a colleague at StreetInsight.com, emailed me the following...December 22, 2005 - This Weeks News at NTL
I've received several inquiries about the news stories, adjustment of the deal terms, and management changes at NTL Incorporated (NTLI) this week. Here is a...December 22, 2005 - Knight-Ridder: Receiving Bids But Sale Process Slow
Reuters posted an update on the Knight Ridder (KRI) bidding process. The deal is described as "slow moving," with multiple bidders and a timeline that...December 21, 2005 - Cable Stocks Still Require Patience
I still like Comcast (CMCSA/K) and as I pointed out in the previous post the key to getting Time Warner (TWX) to close its valuation...December 21, 2005 - AOL-Google Deal Not That Big A Deal For Time Warner
I am generally unimpressed by the AOL-Google (GOOG) deal as far as Time Warner's valuation is concerned. I value Time Warner (TWX) on a sum...December 19, 2005 - Weekend Box Office Report: King Kong Just A Big Ape
King Kong opened strongly with $51 million on the weekend and $66 million since its mid-week release. However, the totals will be considered a disappointment...December 16, 2005 - Lots of Activity at NTL This Week
NTL (NTLI) has traded up steadily this week, extending its gains since it announced it was going to purchase Virgin Mobile. The Virgin deal is...December 16, 2005 - Yahoo: New Buy For Client Accounts
With cash building in client accounts as winning trades were being harvested, I have been looking for a new idea to add to portfolios. I've...December 16, 2005 - Trimming Central European Media Enterprises
I was so busy last week at the UBS Media Conference that I failed to get up a post informing clients that I trimmed positions...December 12, 2005 - Disney's Movie Studio Suddenly Looking Good
The only presentation I heard from Disney (DIS) at last week's UBS Media Conference came from George Bodenheimer, who heads up ESPN. The story at...December 12, 2005 - Company Presentations at the UBS Media Conference
Here are some brief notes summarizing individual company meetings I attended at last week's UBS Media Conference in New York. Please make sure to read...December 05, 2005 - Day One at UBS: The Big Picture
"It's a real mess." Mark Cranmer, who runs international for the big ad buying firm Starcom MediaVest, is describing where the advertising supported industries are...December 04, 2005 - NTL Merging With Virgin Mobile
I woke up Sunday morning to learn that NTL Incorporated (NTLI) will be merging with Virgin Mobile, according to numerous sources in the British and...December 02, 2005 - December Model Signals
There were no changes to the signals from Northlakes Market Cap and Style models for December. The signals remain mid cap and value, respectively. Therefore,...December 01, 2005 - Is A La Carte Pricing Coming To Cable?
The big news this week in media is the announcement that the FCC appears to have changed its mind and is now supporting requiring the...December 01, 2005 - Trimming, Rather Paring, Apple Again :-)
On Monday, I trimmed client positions in Apple Computer (AAPL). The reasoning was similar to the decision to sell in September when the stock first...November 30, 2005 - Cramer Discovers Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares will pop sharply on the open and likely be volatile for a couple of days because Jim Cramer mentioned...November 28, 2005 - Weekend Box Office Report: Thanksgiving
With the box office in a seasonally important season, I plan to issue occassional updates when key movies open or key weekends pass. This past...November 22, 2005 - NY Times Article Provides Support For Northlake's ETF Strategy
Over the weekend, the New York Times ran an article about a new study of investment strategies. The article supported Northlake's ETF rotation strategy by...November 22, 2005 - Follow-Up Data Points From Disney Conference Call
After reading through analyst commentary on Disney (DIS) this morning I wanted to provide a few additional data points that were not included in my...November 22, 2005 - Disney Reports Mixed Quarterly Earnings
Disney (DIS) reported mixed 4Q05 results, slightly worse than analyst estimates on a segment basis. Analysts didn't seem too concerned about the quarter on the...November 22, 2005 - Latest Harry Potter Film Tracking Above Expectations
Despite widely expected success, executives at Time Warner (TWX) have to be happy with the $102 million opening weekend for the latest film in the...November 17, 2005 - Previewing Disney's September Quarter Earnings
Disney (DIS) reports after the close tonight. Current consensus estimates call for EPS and revenue of 18 cents and $7.9 billion, respectively. EPS are down...November 17, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises: News From Prague Meeting Is Good
The news from Prague about last week's analyst meeting for Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) sounds good. Nothing earth-shattering but a good turnout, solid presentations...November 17, 2005 - Mixed Quarter For Lions Gate But Results Set To Improve
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) reported a mixed quarter with revenue and free cash flow slightly ahead of estimates and EBITDA and EPS at the very...November 14, 2005 - With Private Equity Sniffing, NTL Getting Interesting
Speculation reemerged two weekends ago that the NTL-Telewest (NTLI-TLWT) deal may be intercepted by private equity investors. As reported by the UK newspaper The Sunday...November 11, 2005 - NBC and CBS VOD Deals Not Such A Big Deal
I don't share the view that some tipping point was reached and the TV network model was changed forever by the announcements that NBC and...November 10, 2005 - Knight Ridder Sale Won't Rescue Newspaper Stocks
I don't think Knight-Ridder (KRI) is likely to receive a takeover much more than 10% above the current price. Further, I don't think the current...November 08, 2005 - Echostar: I Prefer Other Multichannel TV Stocks
Echostar (DISH) reported 3Q05 revenue and EBITDA right in line with expectations at $2.1 billion and $501 million, respectively. However, the EBITDA figure included a...November 08, 2005 - Cablevision: Cheap But Too Many Distractions
My initial reaction when I read through the Cablevision (CVC) earnings report was that the shares would trade off because EBITDA from the cable business...November 08, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises: Good Third Quarter Sets Up Strong Finish to 2005
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) reported solid 3Q05 EPS last week in a seasonally weak quarter. The market liked the results and the stock is...November 04, 2005 - DirecTV: Not Interested In Getting Long
DirecTV (DTV) reported slightly disappointing 3Q05 results primarily due to higher than expected churn and retention marketing. Revenue of $3.2 billion was a little shy...November 04, 2005 - Comcast: Disappointing Quarter Delays Potential Upside
Elements of Comcast's 3Q05 earnings report are disappointing and they are elements that will matter to the Street. While top line revenue growth and EBITDA...November 04, 2005 - November Model Signals
The November signals from the market cap and style models Northlake uses to allocate ETF-dedicated funds were unchanged from October. Consequently, no trades were done...November 02, 2005 - AOL Doesn't Come Through But A Solid Quarter for Time Warner
Just a quick follow-up to my earlier post about AOL and Time Warner (TWX). AOL did not come though on the ad line as I...November 02, 2005 - Time Warner: Will AOL Finally Show Good Advertising Growth
Given the critical role that AOL will play in the perception of TWX's quarter I wanted to mention an interesting piece of research Bernstein put...November 02, 2005 - Viacom: Better But Still Too Early
Viacom (VIA) reported slightly better than expected that 3Q05 earnings although almost all the excess was earned in the volatile and difficult to predict Entertainment...November 02, 2005 - Charter: A Very Expensive Option
Charter Commications (CHTR) reported mixed results for 3Q05 with EBITDA falling short of expectations while subscriber metrics showed better than expected growth in new services....November 01, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises: Takes Control of License in Slovakia
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) broke a long string of losing days yesterday, rising 4%, or $1.77, to $46.49. The company reports earnings before the...October 31, 2005 - Viacom Third Quarter Earnngs Preview
Viacom (VIA/VIAb) reports before the open on Tuesday. Most investors are looking ahead to the split of the company that will occur at year end...October 31, 2005 - Charter Communications Third Quarter Preview
Charter Communications (CHTR) shares had a wild ride in the third quarter, falling to less than $1.00 in July, rising to $1.60 in August on...October 26, 2005 - Lions Gate Entertainment Update
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) rose almost 4% on Monday, enjoying its best day since early September when it popped 10% in four days to $10.60...October 26, 2005 - The Impact of Internet Advertising on Media Stocks
In my recent reading of Street research on traditional media companies I have noticed two trends. First, analysts are beginning to adjust their multiples downward...October 24, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises: Recent Weakness Should Be Temporary
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have pulled back 10% since early October and about 15% since peaking in September. I think the current pullback...October 21, 2005 - Dow Jones: Ugly But Not A Disaster
Dow Jones (DJ) reported 3Q05 EPS of 12 cents, below consensus of 13 cents. The press release stated that 4Q05 EPS would be in the...October 20, 2005 - New York Times: Still Too Early
Maybe it is the redundancy of listening to my fourth newspaper conference call this earnings season but I found little of interest in the New...October 17, 2005 - Knight-Ridder: Cheap But No Earnings Growth
Knight Ridder (KRI) reported results in line with reduced expectations following management's lower guidance a month ago. Excluding unusual items EPS came in at 67...October 17, 2005 - Swapping Some Small Cap For Large Cap
Although I rarely make a trade intra-month in Northlake's model driven ETF investments, last Wednesday morning I moved half of the small cap value exposure...October 16, 2005 - An Exciting and Illuminating Week for Apple Computer
In the extended comments section at the bottom of this post is the commentary I wrote for StreetInsight.com immediately following Apple Computer's conference call discussing...October 14, 2005 - E.W. Scripps: No Sign of Weakness Yet at Cable Networks
E.W. Scripps (SSP) reported earnings in line with consensus but stronger than I had been anticipating. I came quite close to buying October or November...October 14, 2005 - Tribune: Addressing Unique Issues But Industry Challenges Remain
Tribune (TRB) are up over 2% since reporting 3Q05 earnings and conducting a conference call on Thursday morning before the open. The key takeaway from...October 12, 2005 - Gannett 1Q Results: Nothing To Get Excited About
Gannett (GCI) shares initially bounced about 1% off of depressed levels in response to the company's 3Q05 earnings report before retreating to new lows as...October 11, 2005 - Extra, Extra: Newspaper Stocks Face Long-Term Challenges
Quick Summary: Earnings estimates have come down steadily all year and several companies have pre-announced earnings misses for 3Q05. The stocks should be trading well...October 11, 2005 - M&A Might Drive Interest in Media Stocks
Monday's close on the S&P 500 was the lowest since May 18th. That is not what I wanted to talk about today but I was...October 10, 2005 - Japan On the Mend: Going Long
Shortly after the open Thursday, I completed the purchase of a position in the Japanese stock market across all client accounts. The purchase was completed...October 06, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Shareholders Approve Sale of Company
On Monday, SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) shareholders approved the deal to sell the company to private equity investors for 46 euros per share. According to the...October 06, 2005 - Recent European M&A is Good News For Central European Media Enterprises
Consolidation in European media continues at a frantic pace. Last week, Liberty Global (LBTYA) announced its acquisition of leading Swiss cable company Cablecom. On Monday,...October 05, 2005 - NTL and Telewest Finally Announce Merger
The following entry appeared in its entirety on StreetInsight.com on October 5, 2005. NTL Incorporated (NTLI) and Telewest (TLWT) announced their long awaited and long...October 04, 2005 - October 2005 Model Signals
Over the weekend I received fresh signals from Northlake's monthly models. The big change for October is a new Value signal in the Style model...October 03, 2005 - A Look at October Market History
Despite September's history as the worst month of the year, September 2005 turned out pretty well. The S&P 500 produced a gain of 69 basis...September 29, 2005 - My Take On The Merrill Lynch Downgrade of Apple Computer
I am not sure if it was the Merrill Lynch downgrade from buy to neutral or the iPod nano screen problems that led to the...September 29, 2005 - Changing To A Buy On Time Warner
Over the past few weeks based on my own reading and the action in the stock, I have become more attracted to Time Warner (TWX)...September 27, 2005 - ABC Season Off To Good Start For Disney
Goldman Sachs had a note out on Monday indicating that the fall season at the Walt Disney (DIS) owned ABC Network is off to a...September 26, 2005 - New Blog Coming Soon
Northlake Capital Management, LLC will be debuting its new blog, Media Talk any day now. The blog will provide commentary on media stocks that are...September 24, 2005 - Updating Individual Stock Positions
In the extended entry, please find an update on individual stock positions currently broadly held across client accounts. Click the "Continue Reading" link immediately below...September 12, 2005 - Apple Introduces the iPod Nano
Today I contributed the following commentary on Apple Computer to StreetInsight.com, the professional service of theStreet.com. Since Northlake clients are long Apple in their portfolios,...September 08, 2005 - Sticking With Sears Holdings Despite Mixed Earnings Report
Sears Holdings (SHLD) 2Q06 earnings for the quarter ending July 30, 2005 disappointed investors leading to a decline of 5.2% in the shares on Thursday....September 08, 2005 - Anatomy of SBS Broadcasting Buyout -- Why I Hope For A Higher Offer
I received the circular on the buyout of SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) earlier this week and based on my reading I am continuing to hold the...September 07, 2005 - Sears Holdings Earnings Preview
Northlake clients remain long Sears Holding (SHLD) ahead of second quarter earnings due to be reported before the open tomorrow. The company is not expected...September 06, 2005 - Taking Partial Profits in Apple Computer
There is a lot of anticipation and excitement surrounding this week's official announcement of the iTunes phone combining the efforts of two companies owned by...September 02, 2005 - September Model Signals
After getting fresh signals from Northlake's monthly models, client holdings in the Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM) were swapped into the S&P 400 Mid...August 23, 2005 - SBS Buyout Has Implications for Central European Media Enterprises
Yesterday's SBS Broadcasting buyout deal at 15 times 2005 management guidance for EBITDA has ramifications for valuation on Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). CETV is...August 22, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Accepts Buyout Offer
SBS Broadcasting confirmed recent market rumors and announced this morning that it was accepting an unsolicited 46 Euro ($56) buyout offer from a European private...August 17, 2005 - More Takeover Rumors for SBS Broadcasting
SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) shares jumped about 8% on Monday after a website reported that the company had held "informal discussions" with an unnamed suitor. The...August 13, 2005 - Disney Earnings Fail To Provide Desired Catalyst For Shares
Disney (DIS) shares fell 3% on Wednesday in reaction to the company's 3Q05 earnings report. The quarter was decent but I found the 3Q results...August 13, 2005 - Lions Gate Reports Mixed Quarterly Earnings
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) shares traded down about 7% on heavy volume after the company reported 1Q06 earnings last Wednesday. EPS and EBITDA (operating cash...August 09, 2005 - Another Solid Quarter for Central European Media Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares responded positively to its earnings announcement last Thursday as the company reported a solid quarter and maintained a confident...August 08, 2005 - August Model Signals
I was out of town and unable to post on the August Model Signals last week. As clients have seen by now, the new signals...August 08, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Reports Another Good Quarter
I had to jump in a car to head East on some college visits with my son and didn't get a chance to provide some...July 27, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Reports on 7/28
SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) reports after the close tomorrow followed by a Friday morning conference call. I remain long SBTV and expect another strong earnings report....July 25, 2005 - Taking Partial Profits in Motorola
With Motorola shares breaking through $20 based on a favorable cover story in this weekend's Barron's and in anticipation of the company's analyst meeting which...July 21, 2005 - Another Strong Quarter For Motorola
As you know, I am a daily contributor to StreetInsight.com, one of the sites operated by the Street.com. Among other things I do for them,...July 19, 2005 - Motorola Reports Tonight
Motorola (MOT) reports tonight after the close. Wall Street Insight estimates have been rising steadily throughout the quarter and are well ahead of the guidance...July 19, 2005 - Positive Comments on DVDs from Fox is Good News for Lions Gate
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) rebounded nicely on Friday, up almost 5%, and gained further on Tuesday. Since June 30, the shares have suffered a one-two...July 14, 2005 - Apple Shines
Apple (AAPL) shares were trading up sharply during its conference call last night and look even higher in pre-open trading today. The gains are well...July 12, 2005 - Previewing Apple's Earnings
Apple Computer (AAPL) reports after the close tonight. Consensus expectations call for revenues of $3.34 billion and EPS of 31 cents. Consensus is above management...July 12, 2005 - Sold Half of Sears Holdings
Just a brief note to let everyone know that I sold half of client and personal holdings in Sears Holdings as the stock crossed $160...July 04, 2005 - July Model Signals
Fresh signals for July for the Market Capitalization and Style models led to some trades in clients accounts on July 1st. The Market Cap model...July 04, 2005 - Will Slowing Growth in DVD Sales Hurt Disney and Lions Gate?
Below expectation sales of DVDs of The Incredibles coming on the heels of a much larger shortfall for Shrek 2 have accelerated already brewing concerns...June 30, 2005 - Takeover Rumors for SBS Broadcasting
Several recent news stories have noted that SBS Broadcasting's (SBTV) TV stations in the Netherlands are facing a new competitor as Dutch media mogul Jon...June 30, 2005 - Holding Apple Despite Concerns
Apple shares have struggled for the last few months due to fears of slowing demand for iPods due to competition. Yesterday, those fears got some...June 30, 2005 - Potential Boost for CETV in Czech Republic
There is some potentially positive news out of the Czech Republic for Central European Media Enterprises (CETV). Yesterday, the Czech parliament passed a law that...June 30, 2005 - Lions Gate Reports Strong Quarterly Earnings
LGF reported earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2005 ending March 31, 2005 last night and conducted a conference call this morning. Overall, I...June 15, 2005 - Buying More Sears Holdings
I bought shares in Sears Holdings (SHLD) (formerly KMart) on Monday for the first time in six months following the sharp pullback in the stock...June 10, 2005 - Disney Selling Radio?
Following comments on the last quarterly conference from Bob Iger, speculation has increased that Disney (DIS) may be looking to sell its radio stations and...June 10, 2005 - ABC Concludes Successful Upfront: Positive for Disney
The annual upfront television advertising market moved close to conclusion last week for the broadcast television networks. ABC, CBS, and FOX all announced their sales....June 10, 2005 - Crash Winding Down Very Successful Run For Lions Gate
Crash lost 400 screens for this weekend and is down to about 900 screens. With the film's theatrical run winding down, I thought it would...June 09, 2005 - Ned Davis Research On CNBC
This morning, the #2 strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), Tim Hayes, discussed NDR's latest views on the stock market. A Northlake client astutely noted...June 02, 2005 - June Model Signals
Due to a slowing but still growing economy and a decisive turn in the intermediate-trend indicators, the model Northlake uses to allocate between growth and...May 31, 2005 - Primer on Exchange Traded Funds
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are central to the execution of Northlake's unique investment strategy. ETFs represent the bulk of client portfolios and are the vehicles...May 27, 2005 - Apple: Investor Focus May Be Shifting To Macs
I was surprised by the market's strong response to the news story that Apple Computer (AAPL) was considering using Intel (INTC) chips in future Macs....May 24, 2005 - Motorola Initiates A Share Buyback
Motorola (MOT) shares have finally gotten moving after an initial lull following the company's excellent first-quarter earnings report and increased guidance. A combination of factors...May 23, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises Clarifies 2005 Guidance
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares have rallied sharply since the company announced it would be holding a follow-up a conference call to expand and...May 23, 2005 - NTL First Quarter Earnings Recap
With all the market craziness and earnings reports, I failed to provide a follow-up regarding the first quarter earnings report for NTL (NTLI). As I...May 23, 2005 - Crash A Winner For Lions Gate
While the world focused on the astounding box office numbers for the latest Star Wars film, Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) had another successful weekend at...May 23, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Starts 2005 In Fine Form
SBS Broadcasting(SBTV) reported excellent first quarter earnings on Monday. Driven by better than expected organic revenue growth in the company's television operations, EBITDA exceeded estimates...May 17, 2005 - Disney Story Intact Following Strong Quarterly Earnings
Disney (DIS) reported strong quarterly earnings earlier this month and the follow-up conference call confirmed operating trends remain excellent across the entire company. The shares...May 17, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises To Clarify 2005 Guidance
CETV announced last night that they will hold a follow-up conference call tomorrow morning to clarify 2005 guidance provided on the first quarter results conference...May 10, 2005 - Lion's Gate Entertainment: Hollywood's New Big Cat
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) is the largest independent motion picture studio. The company also produces television shows and owns a library of over 6,200 films...May 04, 2005 - May Model Signals
The updated monthly signals from the market capitalization and style (growth vs. value) indicators showed no change for May. The models still favor large cap...May 04, 2005 - Improved Ratings At ABC Help Disney's TV Stations
Last week, I initiated a position in Walt Disney (DIS) based on the company's strong operating momentum and identifiable catalysts. Among the several catalysts I...May 04, 2005 - Upfront Ad Market A Potential Catalyst for Disney
One of the reasons I like Disney (DIS) is that it has strong fundamental operating momentum with identifiable catalysts. One catalyst is the upfront network...April 29, 2005 - Disney: New Buy
Disney Investment Thesis: Strong fundamentals with identifiable catalysts make DIS the choice among big-cap entertainment stocks despite its premium valuation compared to its peers. I've...April 26, 2005 - Motorola Finally Getting Some Respect
Beginning with the first quarter of 2004, Motorola (MOT) has reported five consecutive quarterly earnings reports that have matched or exceeded Wall Street estimates. Unfortunately,...April 25, 2005 - Central European Media Enterprises Equity Offering This Week
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) looks set to complete its financing this week for the acquisition of TV Nova, the largest and most successful television...April 13, 2005 - Morgan Stanley Downgrades NTL
Morgan Stanley (MWD) downgraded NTL Incorporated (NTLI) from buy to hold yesterday leading to a decline in the shares. Sitting out the market's big turnaround...April 13, 2005 - Lightening Up On SBS Broadcasting But Long-Term Thesis Intact
SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) shares have been acting very well recently, making a 52-week closing high on Monday. On Friday, Bear Stearns wrote about SBTV for...April 07, 2005 - Catching Up With Motorola
Cross-posted from StreetInsight.com.... Motorola (MOT) reports on April 20th. Yesterday, the shares had their best day in a long time, rising over 2% in a...April 04, 2005 - April Model Signals
There were only minor changes to Northlake's Market Capitalization and Style Models in the April update. Neither model changed signals from March leaving the market...March 27, 2005 - A Visit to an Apple Store Keeps Me Bullish
The following entry is cross-posted from Street Insight. As some clients and friends of Northlake Capital Management know, I write a brief daily commentary for...March 17, 2005 - Central European Media: Plenty of Upside Remains
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) has given back some of its recent gains including about 7% since the company reported earnings before the open of...March 08, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Reports Excellent 2004 Results and Provides Solid 2005 Outlook
SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) reported very solid 4Q04 and 2004 results after the close on Monday. Monday's conference call confirmed the solid numbers apparent in the...March 03, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Makes Another Acquistion and Speaks to The Street
SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) presented at a Bear Stearns conference on Tuesday after the close. Besides providing an overview, the company used the occasion to announce...March 02, 2005 - More Good News From Central European Media Enterprises
On March 2, 2005, Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) shares rose over $6 after the company announced it had acquired an additional 29% interest in...March 01, 2005 - March Model Signals
After trending towards Large Cap for several months, Northlake's Market Cap model triggered a Large Cap signal for March. None of the underlying economic, interest...February 22, 2005 - Link To Large Cap vs. Small Cap Graphic
In the extended entry, please find a link to the graphic I sent via email last week. The graphic showed the 80 year history of...February 09, 2005 - SBS Broadcasting Makes Smart Acquisition
SBTV announced the acquisition of CMore Group AB today. Here is a description of CMore taken directly from the press release: CMore Group is the...February 09, 2005 - Schwab Lowers Trading Costs
I received an email from Schwab today announcing that they are lowering commission charges for clients with $50,000 to $1,000,000 in assets at Schwab. The...February 02, 2005 - CETV Management in U.S.
Over the lunch hour today, I listened to a presentation by CETV management to clients of Jefferies and Company brokerage firm. The CEO is based...February 01, 2005 - February Model Signals
Northlake's Market Capitalization and Style models held firm for February with Mid Cap and Value signals. The Market Cap model continued its drift toward large...January 25, 2005 - Motley Fool Likes CETV
Here is a link to a story that ran on Yahoo reproducing a recommendation of CETV by one of Motley Fool's contributors. It is a...January 21, 2005 - Buying Central European Media Enterprises Again
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) was repurchased yesterday per my plan to wait for a pullback to the mid-$30s and a resolution in Ukraine, both...January 21, 2005 - Motorola: Good Quarter, Bad Stock
Motorola (MOT) shares have traded down about 9% since reporting fourth quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday after the market closed. The quarter was...January 13, 2005 - More Shine Left For Apple
Despite the fantastic performance of shares of Apple Computer, including today's big run-up on the company's outstanding fourth quarter earnings results, I believe the opportunity...January 04, 2005 - January Model Signals
Happy New Year to Northlake Clients and Friends! Over the weekend, Northlake received the latest signals from its market capitalization and style models incorporating the...December 23, 2004 - ETF Dividends
Both of the ETF's currently owned by Northlake clients, the S&P 400 Midcap (MDY) and the Russell 2000 Value (IWN), went ex-dividend in the last...December 15, 2004 - Catching Up on Recent News
Sorry for the lack of posts recently but there has been lots of news on stocks of interest to Northlake clients that has occupied my...December 01, 2004 - December Model Signals
Northlake's Market Capitalization and Style models are unchanged once again in December, leaving in place the signals favoring Mid Cap and Value. Consequently, current client...November 27, 2004 - Out of CETV Until Ukraine is Settled
Recently purchased positions in Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) were sold on Friday at a small loss due to uncertainty over the political situation in...November 16, 2004 - Sold Lucent
On November 15, all shares of Lucent Technologies purcahsed for Northlake clients on October 19, 2004 were sold at $4.05. The shares were purchased as...November 05, 2004 - November Model Signals
There were no changes to Northlake's model signals for November. The Market Capitalization Model continues to favor Mid Caps and the Style Model continues to...November 02, 2004 - Good Results for SBS Broadcasting
Northlake's latest purchase on behalf of clients, SBS Broadcasting, reported third quarter EPS yesterday. The results were basically in line with estimates and the company...October 27, 2004 - New Purchase: SBS Broadcasting
Yesterday, Northlake purchased SBS Broadcasting (SBTV) for clients. SBTV is a U.S. company with an American CEO, although the company receives 100% of its revenue...October 20, 2004 - Buying Lucent Technologies
Northlake is buing Lucent Technologies shares for clients. Our investment thesis closely on LU closely tracks our view of Motorola: Both companies botched things badly...October 20, 2004 - Motorola Reports
MOT reported earnings on Tuesday 10/19 after the close. Although I thought the quarter was fine and the fourth quarter outlook solid, the shares took...October 15, 2004 - Explaining Quarterly Conference Calls
One of my most important jobs as a money manager is to keep up with the latest corporate news. During the first half of each...October 14, 2004 - CETV To Open NASDAQ Today
Central European Media Enterprises is ringing the opening bell at the NASDAQ today to celebrate the 10th anniversary of is stock listing. CETV is a...October 07, 2004 - October Model Signals
For October, Northlake's Market Capitalization favors Mid Cap, a change from the prior two months when Large Cap was favored. Northlake's Style Model for October...October 02, 2004 - September Wrap-Up
Northlake's ETF Plus Model Portfolio performed well in September, gaining 1.95% vs. 0.94% for the S&P 500. Northlake's special situation stocks powered the returns with...September 25, 2004 - Media Stocks
I am a long-time investor and analyst in media stocks of all shapes and sizes. I like media stocks becuase the business is fairly simple,...September 24, 2004 - Market Fades
As outlined in recent posts, we expected the weakness experienced by the market the last few days. Besides the poor corporate earnings, which was the...September 22, 2004 - Fed As Expected
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points and kept its commentary relatively unchanged. The market responded with a small rally. The focus will now shift...September 21, 2004 - Monday's Action
The Dow and S&P were weak on Monday in the face of earnings warnings from Colgate Palmolive, New York Times, and PMC Sierra. Colgate fell...September 20, 2004 - Stock Market Seasonality
Lehman Brothers had some interesting research out this morning regarding the seasonality of stock prices as it relates to the third and fourth quarters and...September 20, 2004 - A Little Cautious
The market enters the second half of September near its recent highs after a strong rally off the early August lows. Northlake's recommended stocks and...September 01, 2004 - September Model Signals
No changes to the signals from Northlake's Market Capitalization and Style models for September. The Market Cap model signal favors Large Cap. This model favored...September 01, 2004 - August Wrap-Up
The market staged a comback at the end of the month on low volume enabling the S&P 500 to eke out a small gain of...August 31, 2004 - Progress
The website is coming around and will soon be fully functional with links to your account (if it is in custody at Schwab Institutional) and...August 25, 2004 - Still Testing
Please note that we are just up and running and all you see are tests. Our whole look will change over the next few weeks...
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