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July 15, 2008

Box Office From The Studio Perspective

Last weekend, the #1 film came from NBC Universal (I wrote up NBCU and its impact on parent General Electric on Monday). Hellboy 2: The Golden Army had a strong opening, exceeding its predecessor. The film looks headed to a total domestic run of over $100 million. I did not realize this until reading it on FantasyMoguls.com but assuming that Hellboy 2 makes it to $100 million that will be three straight films form the studio crossing $100 million (The Incredible and Wanted, both released in June, already are over $100 million). The studio's next film, Mamma Mia, is being released this coming weekend and observers also believe it can reach $100 million. The next NBCU film, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, is a sure thing to make $100 million. That would make five consecutive releases crossing $100 million. According to Steve Mason of FantasyMoguls.com, this would be the first ever instance of that happening to any studio. For NBCU/GE, this is all good news which is helpful given a slowdown in advertising that is just beginning to bite national TV and NBC's status as last place in primetime.

For other studios, the news is generally good. Disney is getting good mileage out of Wall-E, although the numbers are not tracking considerably ahead of Cars or Kung Fu Panda. I suspect that Wall-E will have better legs and look for it to go comfortably north of $250 million in North America. With the latest Narnia film severely underperforming its predecessor, this is good news for Disney which needs hit films to drive all its other businesses....

....Kung Fu Panda crossed $200 million and looks headed to $220 million. The story now is how many screens it can keep as it has been in theatres since early June. The film brought in a respectable $4.3 million last weekend. I remain long Dreamworks Animation as I believe that estimates are too low due to the success of Panda in both North America and aboard.

There was one loser this weekend. Meet Dave, the latest Eddie Murphy film, was his worst opening ever. The film grossed just $5.3 million despite a wide release and heavy marketing. At a rumored production cost of $60 million and a marketing budget likely in the same range, a writedown is possible for 20th Century Fox, owned by News Corporation. Fox had a small summer planned and now one of its films has bombed. Six months form now this will pressure studio results as the future windows are bereft of popular product. It's a small part of News Corp but not a helpful development given the collapse in the stock over the past several months.

Posted by Steve Birenberg at July 15, 2008 10:54 AM in Box Office