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July 12, 2005

Previewing Apple's Earnings

Apple Computer (AAPL) reports after the close tonight. Consensus expectations call for revenues of $3.34 billion and EPS of 31 cents. Consensus is above management guidance of $3.25 billion and 28 cents. Full year 2005 EPS estimates are $1.33 with 2006 at $1.54, or 16% growth. Current 3Q consensus estimates for revenues and EPS are $3.6 billion and 33 cents, respectively.

Other key metrics to watch include iPod shipments, computer shipments, inventories and receivables. iPod shipments are forecast in the 5.2 to 5.5 million range, flat with last quarter's 5.3 million. Computer shipments are forecast at 1.1 million also flat with last quarter. It is worth noting that AAPL reports shipments into the distribution channels not final sales for these measures.

AAPL shares could be volatile in either direction depending on the details in the quarterly report and the guidance and commentary about current and future trends. Northlake is long AAPL and thus optimistic but cautious optimism is a fairer characterization regarding Wall Street's short-term reaction....

....Regarding guidance, which will be key to the Street's reaction, AAPL is entering a seasonally strong with computer shipments to the education market followed by holiday sales. Management will probably provide just third quarter guidance which is noted above.

The halo effect will also be carefully analyzed. Last quarter, AAPL computer shipments grew 43% vs. industry growth of 12%. This quarter shipments are projected to grow 26%, about twice the industry average. Both quarters have received some benefit from pipeline fill as the company pushed the MacMini to market. Interestingly, various analyst surveys say it’s the iMac that is showing the strongest sales at the retail level.

AAPL clearly faces high expectations and slowing growth off of unsustainable 60-70% revenue gains. However, I don’t think the stock is priced for hyper growth at $38. On 2006 estimates, the stock trades at a P-E of 25. However, cash is over $8 per share and heading up. Cash probably accounts for 12-15 cents of next years' estimates, so back that out and you got a $30 stock trading at a multiple of 22. I don’t find that horribly expensive or out of line with other tech names.

I'll post a summary of AAPL's earnings on Thursday after the conference call and the initial Wall Street reaction. I'll be providing live commentary of the call this afternoon for Street Insight.com

Posted by Steve Birenberg at July 12, 2005 09:49 PM in AAPL