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August 22, 2006
I Am Famous. Sort Of.
I Am Famous. Sort Of.
Back on August 1, 2006, Jim Cramer of CNBC and theStreet.com, did a segment on Comcast on his nightly Mad Money TV show. During the segment, Cramer tells viewers how for the past year everyone hated Comcast. Everyone that is except, yours truly. Cramer says “"Birenberg's the only guy to have gotten this right..When everyone else was running from it, he rushed to it!" Check out the whole segment by clicking below. I am mentioned about two minutes into the segment.
Now I am sure clients will want to know why I didn’t buy Comcast for all of their accounts. The answer is that I limit my holdings to just a half dozen or so stocks at any one time. So while I liked Comcast, I liked the stocks I held in client accounts even more. Of course, I don’t always get every stock pick right. In this case, I would have been better off if Comcast was in all of Northlake’s managed portfolios. Nevertheless, I am proud of my analysis and very pleased that it was recognized.
Posted by Steve Birenberg at August 22, 2006 02:23 PM in All Positions
1.Congratulations on your receiving well deserved praise by Cramer of your Comcast analysis.
2.Suddenly,there is no more news about acquisition offers for Ntli.What do you think is goingon with regard to Ntli?
3.Cetv seems to be in trading range between 57 and 61.Do you think it is likely that the stock price will stay there until after the fall elections or do you think the stock will respond positively to a raise in guidance given at the Cetv conference on 9/21?
Thanks, Mike. Cramer is a bit crazy at times but I really appreciate his attempts to tell individual investors how the street really works. None of the condesending talk that often shows up on CNBC. It was nice of him notice my work.
I would hope to hear somehting next week or just after Labor Day regarding NTLI. The more I think about it the more I believe that a deal must happen. And if management walks away, it seems they would almost have to complete a self-tender or pay a large one-time dividend. After all, if they turn down $30, they ought to be willing to buy back there own stock at that price. Say 20% of the float to give a chance to those investors who would happily tender to private equity at $30 a chance to sell at that price. I would tender.
On CETV, I think a guidance increase at the September 21 analyst meeting would provide a boost and all esle equal get the trading range back into the $60s. However, I also think that CETV's high volatility means that in the short-term the direction of the market is more importatnt than the guidiance so if the market tails off again as I expect, CETV may not overcome the good news I expect in Sepetmeber.
Posted by: Steve at August 24, 2006 04:01 PMA RECENT ARTICLE ON DOW JONES IMPLIES THAT NTLI HAS AGAIN RECEIVED AN OFFER[? FOR APPROX.$32],BUT THAT BRANSON AND HUFF ARE HOLDING OUT FOR A MUCH HIGHER BID[I.E GREATER THAN $34 PER SHARE]. IN LIGHT OF THE VERY COMPETITIVE UK CABLE INDUSTRY,IS IT LIKELY THAT THIS HIGHER PRICE CAN BE ACHIEVED? CAN A DEAL BE DONE WITHOUT THE OK OF THE LARGER INVESTORS?
Posted by: mp at August 27, 2006 06:22 PMManagement and the Board will have a tough time turning down $32 without raising the ire of all the non-Huff/Branson shareholders. If in fact, private equity bids $32, I suspect they would bid $33 or $33.50. I took this article to be a good sign. And I continue to think that if NTL walks away there will have to be a bone for shareholders inthe form a special dividend or self-tender at a premium. These situations are risky but sit tight and I think NTLI will break right. If the shares jump up Monday that will put pressure on management and indicate that some arb money is gettign involved.
Posted by: Steve at August 27, 2006 07:57 PM